What does the Fed rate hike by July 2026 market measure?

The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate increases at any point from December 16, 2025 through the completion of the listed July 2026 FOMC meeting. Otherwise, it resolves No.

When does this Fed rate hike prediction market resolve?

The listed resolution date is December 9, 2026. The market also includes rules covering a delayed FOMC meeting and the timing of any qualifying rate-hike announcement.

What would make the market resolve Yes?

A rate increase announced during the specified period, including a hike announced as a result of the listed FOMC meeting, would make the market resolve Yes.

What are the current Polymarket odds for a July 2026 Fed hike?

Live odds were not included in the supplied metadata. Check the market page for the latest Yes and No prices before trading.

What smart-money activity is being tracked?

PolySpotter reports $1,141 in tracked smart money and one signal, with recent alerts mentioning a five-wallet No cluster, a serial macro bettor buying No, and a three-wallet Fed hike push.

Part of: Fed rate hike by...?

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

This Polymarket market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will be raised between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed FOMC meeting in July 2026. The supplied metadata does not include live odds; PolySpotter tracks $1,141 in smart money across one signal, with recent activity including both No-cluster and Fed-hike alerts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $69,121.

Categories: fomc, Inflation, Fed, Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Economy, CPI Release

Notable Trades

Profitable macro momentum trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike and price move toward No, though the trade is modest and the edge is more momentum-based than wallet-track-record-based.

This bettor has made over 1,000 resolved bets and is up about $251K lifetime.
The market saw a huge volume spike, and No has already moved from 90¢ to 93¢ after this entry.
This wallet often trades related markets, with activity across 57 events and 83 markets.

$1,141 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable macro momentum trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike and price move toward No, though the trade is modest and the edge is more momentum-based than wallet-track-record-based.

This bettor has made over 1,000 resolved bets and is up about $251K lifetime.
The market saw a huge volume spike, and No has already moved from 90¢ to 93¢ after this entry.
This wallet often trades related markets, with activity across 57 events and 83 markets.

$2,304 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable macro momentum trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike and price move toward No, though the trade is modest and the edge is more momentum-based than wallet-track-record-based.

This bettor has made over 1,000 resolved bets and is up about $251K lifetime.
The market saw a huge volume spike, and No has already moved from 90¢ to 93¢ after this entry.
This wallet often trades related markets, with activity across 57 events and 83 markets.

$1,026 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Serial macro bettor buying NO

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% historical hit rate bought $12.1k of No before a sharp move from 81¢ to 93¢, alongside a major volume spike and linked-wallet activity.

This bettor has traded 243 markets across 156 events and wins 86% of resolved bets.
They bought $12.1k of No at 81¢, and the market has already moved to 93¢.
Volume spiked 276x normal, with linked-wallet activity adding to the one-sided No move.

$12,135 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable macro momentum trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike and price move toward No, though the trade is modest and the edge is more momentum-based than wallet-track-record-based.

This bettor has made over 1,000 resolved bets and is up about $251K lifetime.
The market saw a huge volume spike, and No has already moved from 90¢ to 93¢ after this entry.
This wallet often trades related markets, with activity across 57 events and 83 markets.

$1,357 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

5-wallet No cluster

Five wallets, including linked and historically active cross-market traders, bought $37K of No into a sharp volume spike and moved the market higher.

Five wallets bought $37K of No within minutes, pushing No from the high-60s/low-80s up to 88¢.
Two wallets share a funder and the flow is all one-sided, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random activity.
One participating trader has bet across 155 events with an 86% win rate, and several wallets were adding to existing No positions.

$37,111 on No

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering a contrarian Yes position on a Fed hike market at 8¢ despite recent price weakness.

This bettor has won 69% of resolved trades and is up about $494k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.0M deployed across 117 markets.
Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside Fed hike bet if they are right.

$6,555 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering a contrarian Yes position on a Fed hike market at 8¢ despite recent price weakness.

This bettor has won 69% of resolved trades and is up about $494k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.0M deployed across 117 markets.
Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside Fed hike bet if they are right.

$1,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Three-wallet Fed hike push

Three wallets effectively bought Yes around 23¢ on a Fed hike market, led by a profitable high-volume wallet and reinforced by coordinated same-minute flow.

Three wallets moved the same way within 31 seconds, effectively buying Yes around 23¢.
The largest bettor is up $73k lifetime across $3.6M traded.
This $6.5k cluster equals about 23% of the market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.

$6,491 on Yes