What would make the IAEA Iran site-visit market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if one or more IAEA officials, acting in an official capacity, physically visit Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility before the deadline.

When does the IAEA site-visit Polymarket resolve?

The market deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The listed resolution timestamp is January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC.

Does a visit to Pickaxe Mountain count as a Natanz visit?

No. The market rules specifically state that Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

What are the current Polymarket odds for an IAEA visit?

The provided market metadata does not include current odds. Check the live market page for the latest Yes and No prices.

Part of: IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

This Polymarket market resolves Yes if an IAEA official physically visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves No. Live odds were not included in the provided market data, which shows $33,834 in tracked smart money and a recent alert that a five-wallet cluster added to No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $50,070.

Categories: Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to No

A serial, modestly profitable trader added materially to an existing No position in a thin market, though the record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.

Added $1,632 to an existing $1,887 No position; the trade was about 76% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
The trader has 749 resolved bets and is up $39,092, but its 79% win rate is close to its 87¢ average winning entry price.
The market has only $3,677 in liquidity, so this sizable addition signals conviction but may be difficult to copy at the same price.

$1,632 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Three-wallet coordinated Yes position

Three wallets moved about $20.6K into the Yes side at an effective 14¢, alongside a 150x historical volume spike, though their track records do not establish a clear edge.

Three wallets made roughly $20,600 in aligned trades, equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢.
The trades coincided with volume running 150 times above its historical average.
The wallets have no compelling proven track record, so the coordinated flow is the main signal.

$20,589 on Yes

Four-wallet coordinated No position

Four wallets added nearly $28,000 to No in a burst over 20 seconds, alongside a reported 1,415x volume spike on a relatively thin market.

Four wallets bought No within seconds, committing $27,849 in total.
The burst coincided with a reported 1,415x increase over historical volume on a market with about $20,800 in liquidity.
They entered No at 82¢, and all four already held No positions before adding more.

$27,849 on No

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?$50,070 tracked3 signalsIranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics

Yes

12¢

88¢

Yes

12¢

88¢

Price History — “No”

92¢

83¢

75¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades