Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,028.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Nuclear, Politics, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
94% winner flips toward Yes
A highly proven wallet with a 94% win rate is reducing its No position here, which converts to a buy signal on Yes around 25¢ despite weak standalone alert size.
- This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 670 resolved markets and is up $72k.
- Selling No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢, signaling less confidence in the current 78% No price.
- The market has fallen 12 points in a day, so this trade stands out as a sharp bettor leaning against recent momentum.
$1,709 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% win-rate bettor
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and strong edge is taking a fresh No position in a geopolitics market with meaningful liquidity and recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 668 resolved markets and is up $71.6k
- They bought No at 70¢, backing the more likely side in a major geopolitics market
- The market has real activity with $42.5k traded in 24 hours, so this is not just noise in a dead market
$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
98% win-rate bettor
A bettor flagged with an exceptional long-term record bought No at 60¢ in a major geopolitics market that has recently surged, making this a credible sharp-flow signal despite only one trade.
- This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets, an unusually strong record at roughly even odds.
- They bought No at 60¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market after the Yes side ran up 31 points over the past week.
- Entry at 60¢ means they likely view a full Iranian enrichment halt by April 30 as less likely than the market implies.
$4,489 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Proven trader reloading NO
A proven high-volume trader with a 74% win rate reopened a sizable No position during an extreme volume spike, signaling fresh conviction even after previously closing this market.
- This bettor has won 226 of 306 resolved markets and is up about $203k lifetime.
- They just bought $7.7k of No during a 180x volume spike, which suggests fresh conviction rather than routine activity.
- They had previously closed a No position here and are now re-entering around 76¢ while No trades near 74¢.
$7,734 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
10-wallet funded cluster
A 10-wallet funded cluster is still deploying into Yes on a fast-rising geopolitics market, which is notable coordinated conviction despite this wallet having no proven track record yet.
- 10 wallets funded by the same source have been betting together, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
- This buy came at 39¢ while the market has jumped 21 points in a day and 32 points in a week
- The market is geopolitics-driven with $143k in 24h volume, so fresh coordinated flow here is more worth watching than a random meme bet
$1,999 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
76% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate bought No at 90¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-style position worth tracking despite only a moderate alert score.
- This bettor has won 217 of 287 resolved trades and is up about $184k overall
- They trade heavily across related events — 70 markets over 51 events and more than $4.0M deployed
- They bought No at 90¢ in a geopolitics market, backing the base case that Iran will not fully end enrichment by April 30
$2,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp geopolitical grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate bought No at 90% in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-money signal despite only one detection flag.
- This bettor has won 804 of 1,122 resolved trades and is up $183.6k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events — 124 events and $1.12M total volume suggest a repeatable process
- Bought No at 90¢ in a real geopolitical market, backing the view that an April 30 enrichment halt is still unlikely
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 59937347, $25,523 (39% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 59937347, $18,439 (70% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 59937347, $16,438 (84% win rate)
- 0xf4ba...5933 — Outcome 59937347, $11,246
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 59937347, $10,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 59937347, $10,000 (38% win rate)
- 0x2e42...0dfe — Outcome 59937347, $7,195
- 0x127b...afa7 — Outcome 59937347, $5,063
- 0xd151...85ea — Outcome 59937347, $5,000
- 0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 59937347, $4,553 (70% win rate)
