Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. A Yes resolution can come from a unilateral Iranian pledge or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel, as long as the commitment is public. PolySpotter tracks the latest prediction market odds and smart money activity around this geopolitical market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,686.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear

Notable Trades

15-wallet geopolitical cluster

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought No in a relatively quiet geopolitical market that has recently moved sharply, making this coordinated conviction worth surfacing.

  • This wallet is part of a 15-wallet funded cluster, a strong sign one actor is spreading size across accounts.
  • The bettor has a 69% win rate across 354 resolved markets and is up about $279k lifetime.
  • They bought No at 51¢ in a market with only $4.3k of 24-hour volume after a sharp 1-day move, suggesting conviction in a still-thin market.

$3,686 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $15,684 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d No, $7,228 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x9d73...216b Yes, $5,755 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xbdd2...0bd8 No, $4,505 (66% win rate)
  5. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $3,210 (64% win rate)
  6. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $3,138 (60% win rate)
  7. 0xdc83...bcd2 No, $2,948
  8. 0x73d2...f9b7 No, $2,400 (76% win rate)
  9. 0xeb75...446d Yes, $1,650
  10. 0xc021...1fa8 No, $1,500 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

262d$3,686 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear
Yes
42¢
No
59¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
77¢
57¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

1h ago

$3,686 on No at 51¢

51¢59¢8¢

Related Theses

Iran Uranium Surrender Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter