Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if Iran makes an official public pledge, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $11,593 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent geopolitical and cross-market sharp alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $116,665.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitical cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes during a major volume spike on a geopolitically informed market, despite the price moving against the entry afterward.
- This bettor is up $321k lifetime across more than $15.9M traded.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 52 events and $1.94M in tracked positions.
- This market saw a 66.7x volume spike, and the wallet has $39k positioned across related markets.
$8,111 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a large 380-bet history is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying Yes at 48¢ despite only a moderate composite signal.
- This bettor has won 72% of 380 resolved bets and is up $316K lifetime.
- They have put $9.2K across two related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 48¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current near-even market.
$3,482 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis, but this specific entry is modest and not backed by a high win-rate signal.
- This bettor is up $1.57M lifetime and has traded over $243M across resolved markets.
- They have $42.8K positioned across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 48¢ implies they see this as roughly a coin flip with upside if diplomatic terms shift.
$1,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%
99% winner buys NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 99% resolved win rate bought No on a major Iran nuclear market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 77 of 78 resolved positions and is up $319K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 79 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 48¢ goes against a 15-point one-day Yes move, implying they see the recent rally as overdone.
$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 99%
84% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp 84% lifetime winner with major cross-market history effectively bought Yes on a related Iran uranium thesis despite only modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M placed across 118 related-event markets.
- This is part of a broader 4-market Iran thesis totaling about $31.9K.
$1,234 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market trading below their fill now.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67K lifetime across 269 outcomes.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.3M deployed across 75 related markets.
- They bought Yes at 57¢, while the market is now around 49¢, offering a cheaper entry than their fill.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a long track record is buying Yes as part of broader Iran-event positioning, despite this specific trade being modest in size.
- This bettor is up $1.57M across 917 resolved trades with a 63% win rate.
- They have traded 53 related events and currently show $120K of cross-market positioning in this Iran event.
- Entry at 44¢ is already slightly ahead of the market, now trading around 46¢.
$1,226 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable whale cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market bearish Iran uranium thesis, converting this SELL Yes into a BUY No at 62¢.
- This bettor is up about $1.6M lifetime across 917 resolved bets.
- They have positioned across 3 related markets with about $120K in exposure.
- Selling Yes at 38¢ is equivalent to buying No at 62¢, backing the 2026 deadline to fail.
$1,135 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
81% win-rate macro trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on Iran surrendering enriched uranium.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $69k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 34 events with $1.28M in tracked activity.
- Selling Yes at 42¢ is equivalent to buying No at 58¢, against current No odds near 56%.
$2,122 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
$1.6M cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader is extending a broader No thesis across related Iran markets, though this individual leg is modest in size.
- This bettor is up $1.6M lifetime across 917 resolved markets.
- They have traded 84 markets across 53 related events, with a 63% win rate.
- This is part of a broader $120k position across 3 markets in the same event.
$1,195 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $42,529 (69% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $32,616 (64% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $31,939 (57% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $18,145 (72% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $16,416 (62% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $16,000 (89% win rate)
- 0x2fad...f5c0 — Yes, $15,406 (41% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $14,500 (53% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $11,408 (62% win rate)
- 0x5666...c630 — Yes, $9,000
