Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if Iran makes an official pledge, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,000 in smart money and 1 signal tied to this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $138,378.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
91% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up about $34k lifetime.
- They bought No at 80¢, adding to a $3k cross-market thesis on the same event.
- The market has moved toward No over the last week, with Yes down 10%.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up about $34k lifetime.
- They bought No at 80¢, adding to a $3k cross-market thesis on the same event.
- The market has moved toward No over the last week, with Yes down 10%.
$1,079 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up about $34k lifetime.
- They bought No at 80¢, adding to a $3k cross-market thesis on the same event.
- The market has moved toward No over the last week, with Yes down 10%.
$1,850 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
New repeat bettor buying NO
Brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged positions is adding a $2.2k No bet on a geopolitical market, with modest early profit and market momentum supporting the direction.
- This wallet is only 5 hours old but has already made 6 flagged bets totaling $14.5k.
- It has opened 8 positions quickly and is already up $216 on $50k invested.
- The trade backs No at 81¢ while Yes has fallen 6.5 percentage points over the past week.
$2,214 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
91% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up about $34k lifetime.
- They bought No at 80¢, adding to a $3k cross-market thesis on the same event.
- The market has moved toward No over the last week, with Yes down 10%.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
81% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes on a geopolitical Iran market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64,390 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.37M deployed across 80 markets in 36 events.
- Buying Yes at 34¢ after previously closing a Yes position suggests renewed conviction at a lower price.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes on a geopolitics market as part of a broader event thesis.
- This bettor has won 81% of 270 resolved trades and is up $64,390 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.37M deployed across 80 related markets.
- Buying Yes at 34¢ suggests they see upside despite the market drifting down 9% this week.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% record is re-entering Yes at 33¢ as part of a broader Iran-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 81% of 270 resolved trades and is up $64k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.37M deployed across 80 markets in 36 events.
- This is part of a broader Iran-event position, with $6.8k placed across 3 related markets.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp wallet buys No
Despite a weak detection score, the wallet qualifies as a sharp-wallet signal with a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, and it is effectively buying No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $4.3K lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a Buy No at 68¢, fading a Yes outcome on a long-dated Iran uranium market.
- This wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting repeated notable positioning rather than a one-off bet.
$1,028 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Million-profit cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the Yes side after positioning across multiple related Iran markets.
- This trader is up $1.17M across 949 resolved bets with a 63% win rate.
- They have traded 4 related markets in this event, totaling about $197K in positioning.
- Selling No at 64¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 36¢.
$3,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $29,975 (54% win rate)
- 0x2fad...f5c0 — Yes, $24,121 (41% win rate)
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — Yes, $22,827 (82% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $20,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $19,134 (70% win rate)
- 0x5e73...6697 — Yes, $18,175 (69% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $18,145 (72% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $18,038 (69% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $16,416 (62% win rate)
- 0xc3db...0f98 — No, $16,131 (42% win rate)
