Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026. A “Yes” outcome can come from a unilateral Iranian pledge or from an agreement involving the U.S. or Israel; otherwise the market resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,950 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts leaning toward NO buyers and high-win-rate geopolitics bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
43 smart money signals detected, totaling $123,937.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a long history is buying No on a liquid Iran nuclear-market thesis.
- This bettor has won 65% of 1,463 resolved trades and is up $201K lifetime.
- They trade heavily across related events: 155 events, 355 markets, and $1.5M total tracked volume.
- They have $21K positioned across two related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran nuclear thesis, buying No at 78¢ despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,463 resolved bets and about $200K in lifetime profit.
- They have put over $21K across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader nuclear-deal thesis.
- Buying No at 78¢ goes against the recent move toward Yes, so this is a contrarian position from a proven wallet.
$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is building a cross-market Iran thesis and effectively buying Yes at 15¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $12.9k lifetime.
- They have put $12.2k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran nuclear-deal thesis.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, a low-priced contrarian entry after the market fell 10 points this week.
$3,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable 79% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market Iran thesis, effectively buying Yes at 15¢ after positioning across 4 related markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $12.9K lifetime.
- They have put $13K across 4 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 15¢, a contrarian entry after the market fell 11% this week.
$4,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Perfect-record geopolitical bettor
Sharp 20-0 wallet with positive lifetime P&L bought $11.5k of No and has a broader $33.6k same-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 20 of 20 resolved bets and is up $82k lifetime.
- They bought $11.5k of No, roughly the entire past day’s volume in this market.
- The same wallet has $33.6k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
$11,492 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
94% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved win rate is re-entering No and has related cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.
- This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved trades and is up about $22K lifetime.
- They bought $2.16K of No at 85¢ after previously closing a profitable No position on this market.
- They have nearly $7.9K positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable Iran thesis trader
A proven profitable wallet with an 80% record is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying No at 85¢ as part of $10.8k across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.9k lifetime.
- They have placed $10.8k across 4 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with the market’s recent move lower for Yes over the past week.
$1,989 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Serial trader buying No
Serial cross-market trader with a positive track record is taking the No side on a geopolitics market as part of a broader 4-market thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of resolved trades and is up about $192K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.64M deployed across 41 events.
- This trade is part of a broader 4-market position totaling $38K on the same event.
$5,591 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable high-sample bettor with a 68% record and $46.9k lifetime profit is building a cross-market Iran thesis despite only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has a long track record: 747 wins across 1,100 resolved bets and $46.9k in lifetime profit.
- They are positioning across 2 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 19¢ implies a high-upside bet if Iran makes even a partial public agreement by June 2026.
$1,239 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable 80% win-rate wallet is expressing a broader Iran-event thesis across four related markets, buying No here at 83¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $12.9K lifetime.
- They have placed $12.2K across 4 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 83¢ aligns with current market pricing but adds to a consistent cross-market view.
$1,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $82,852 (69% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $65,008 (53% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $43,061 (100% win rate)
- 0xac4f...0a27 — No, $37,429 (40% win rate)
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $32,891 (63% win rate)
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Yes, $31,949 (77% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $27,331 (82% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $26,812 (46% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $24,713 (48% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $23,337 (62% win rate)
