Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $133,004.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
70% serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate put $29K on Yes ahead of a major price and volume surge.
- This bettor has won 70% of 71 resolved bets and is up about $293K lifetime.
- They bought $29K of Yes at 88–89¢ before the market jumped to 96¢.
- This is part of a broader thesis across 6 related markets totaling about $220K.
$29,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
82% winner flips Yes
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with large cross-market event positioning flipped from a prior No stance to buying Yes on a fast-moving Iran airspace market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $565k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.5M deployed across 53 events.
- They have $83k positioned across 8 related markets and flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes.
$1,926 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp wallets fading spike
Three wallets are taking the No side against a huge Yes price spike, led by a profitable 83% winner and strong cross-market positioning.
- A bettor who wins 83% of resolved trades is part of this No-side cluster and is up $5.8K lifetime.
- Three wallets put $7.3K on No, mostly by selling Yes as the market surged.
- One wallet has traded 8 related markets with an 82% win record, suggesting a broader event thesis.
$7,329 on No
Coordinated sharp Yes flow
High-conviction coordinated Yes buying from five wallets, backed by sharp cross-market traders, a major volume spike, and a 20-point price move.
- Five wallets bought $12.9k of Yes together as the price surged from 53¢ to 74¢.
- Several bettors have strong histories, including one up $247k lifetime and another serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate.
- Volume is 18x above normal and Yes is up 64 points in a day, suggesting fast-moving momentum around this event.
$12,878 on Yes
Profitable Iran thesis bettor
Profitable wallet is building a broader Iran-event thesis across 8 related markets, with this Yes buy aligning with strong recent market momentum.
- This bettor is up $125k lifetime across $4.6M traded.
- They have placed $35k across 8 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Yes has surged about 35 points in 24h, and this buy came in at 48¢.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is taking a $4.5k No position while also trading multiple related markets in the same event.
- This bettor has a long profitable record: 65% wins across 1,550 resolved trades and +$264k lifetime.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, with $29k positioned on the broader thesis.
- This is a fresh flip toward No after closing a prior Yes position, not routine profit-taking.
$4,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a renewed No position while holding a broader $102k cross-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 62% of them, and is up $367k lifetime.
- They have placed $102k across 8 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing Iran not closing its airspace by the deadline.
$2,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable cross-market Iran trader
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran thesis by fading airspace-closure odds, though the signal is modest and not a high-conviction whale trade.
- This bettor has a long record: 910 resolved bets with $53K in lifetime profit.
- They are trading across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 14¢ is equivalent to backing No at 86¢, a bet that closure odds are overstated.
$1,083 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
6-wallet funded group
High-severity linked-wallet signal on a geopolitical market, with a profitable long-shot bettor buying Yes despite the market pulling back.
- Six wallets funded by the same source are tied to this position, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- This wallet is up $36k lifetime despite a low hit rate, with wins typically coming from cheap long-shot entries.
- Entry at 20¢ implies a 5x payoff if Iran closes its airspace by the deadline.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%
88% winner buying No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and $707k lifetime profit is buying No across this Iran airspace thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
- They have traded 71 markets across 39 events, with $1.8M total volume and strong results.
- They are backing No again at 88¢ while also positioning across 5 related markets worth $41.6k.
$3,802 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x33a9...9e97 — Outcome 55798599, $101,000
- 0x60e6...71d2 — Outcome 55798599, $100,000
- 0x7c94...00d0 — Outcome 55798599, $88,192
- 0xd640...480c — Outcome 55798599, $67,699 (39% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — Outcome 55798599, $55,994 (89% win rate)
- 0x95cf...e7dd — Outcome 55798599, $53,000
- 0x5856...3165 — Outcome 55798599, $50,000
- 0x9e9b...399c — Outcome 55798599, $50,000
- 0xe877...8dec — Outcome 55798599, $48,288 (72% win rate)
- 0x763e...586e — Outcome 55798599, $31,252
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