Part of: Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,491.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
93% winner adding to No
A highly profitable 93% winner is adding to an existing No position, with a strong linked-wallet cluster signal behind the account.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up about $91.6K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position at 84¢, bringing disclosed investment on this market above $7.4K.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting this may be a coordinated high-conviction setup.
$3,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner adding to No
A highly profitable 93% winner is adding to an existing No position, with a strong linked-wallet cluster signal behind the account.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up about $91.6K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position at 84¢, bringing disclosed investment on this market above $7.4K.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting this may be a coordinated high-conviction setup.
$2,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Related Theses
World Cup favorites prevail
Covers 4 related markets
Iranian blockade will persist through September
Covers 8 related markets
US-Iran peace deal unlikely
Covers 2 related markets
Ceasefire holds through early August
Covers 7 related markets
US-Iran talks won’t happen by September
Covers 5 related markets
No Iran deal announced
Covers 4 related markets
WTI stays above $75
Covers 1 related market
No U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027
Covers 1 related market
