Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,858.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close

Notable Trades

Five-wallet No cluster ahead of rally

Five wallets added over $10.6K to No before the market moved from roughly 86% to 94%, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite limited proven edge.

Five wallets collectively bought $10,635 of No, with entries around 84¢–89¢ before No rose to 94¢.
Several bettors are adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
The group includes experienced profitable traders, though their individual track records do not show a uniformly strong edge.

$10,635 on No

90% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 90% win rate is adding $1,223 to an existing No position, though the entry price largely matches market odds.

This bettor has won 90% of 185 resolved trades and is up $557,345.
The trader is adding $1,223 to an existing No position, reinforcing the view that Iran will not generally close its airspace.
The 89¢ entry offers limited value because No is already priced around 89%, but the wallet has traded across 51 events.

$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%