Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,858.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Five-wallet No cluster ahead of rally
Five wallets added over $10.6K to No before the market moved from roughly 86% to 94%, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite limited proven edge.
- Five wallets collectively bought $10,635 of No, with entries around 84¢–89¢ before No rose to 94¢.
- Several bettors are adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The group includes experienced profitable traders, though their individual track records do not show a uniformly strong edge.
$10,635 on No
90% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 90% win rate is adding $1,223 to an existing No position, though the entry price largely matches market odds.
- This bettor has won 90% of 185 resolved trades and is up $557,345.
- The trader is adding $1,223 to an existing No position, reinforcing the view that Iran will not generally close its airspace.
- The 89¢ entry offers limited value because No is already priced around 89%, but the wallet has traded across 51 events.
$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 11178965, $53,227 (68% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 11178965, $27,460 (20% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 11178965, $8,364 (6% win rate)
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Outcome 11178965, $8,303
- 0x47ff...7ccb — Outcome 11178965, $7,777 (24% win rate)
- 0xd7f1...73cd — Outcome 11178965, $6,600
- 0x57ca...aa90 — Outcome 11178965, $5,709
- 0xbc43...1540 — Outcome 11178965, $5,300 (84% win rate)
- 0xc7d1...bf3c — Outcome 11178965, $4,549
- 0x8aaa...51df — Outcome 11178965, $4,533 (81% win rate)
Related Theses
Israel airspace stays open
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WTI stays below $85
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Iran loses Kharg Island by December
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Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through August
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Spurs beat the Knicks
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