Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,029.

Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, seize, strike, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Whale adds to thin-market conviction

A trader with a positive track record added $1,029 to an existing Yes position in an extremely illiquid market, making the bet notable despite limited evidence of exceptional skill.

  • The $1,029 purchase was roughly 90 times the market’s 24-hour volume and exceeded its reported $727 liquidity.
  • This bettor already held $2,341 of Yes shares and added again near 89%, signaling strong conviction in a quiet geopolitical market.
  • The wallet is up $29,750 across 29 resolved markets, though its 62% win rate does not clearly establish a major edge at this price.

$1,029 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcb3b...a2b6 Outcome 72287440, $492
  2. 0x0c2c...dce3 Outcome 72287440, $50
  3. 0xda73...4d41 Outcome 72287440, $50 (77% win rate)
  4. 0x11f8...e629 Outcome 72287440, $33
  5. 0x3329...43a6 Outcome 72287440, $20
  6. 0x557e...5007 Outcome 72287440, $20 (68% win rate)
  7. 0xff7c...b233 Outcome 72287440, $20 (51% win rate)
  8. 0x7a0d...53f7 Outcome 72287440, $19 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 72287440, $10
  10. 0x0314...2f6d Outcome 72287440, $8

Related Theses

Brief ceasefire in late July

Covers 3 related markets

Iran blockade ends late August

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Iran deal before June

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Iran talks won't be extended

Covers 1 related market

US-Iran talks will happen soon

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Iran halt comes in August

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Iran-Oman deal delayed past August

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Saudi military action against Yemen occurs

Covers 1 related market

US-Iran talks after June 19

Covers 3 related markets

Fable 5 returns by July 2

Covers 5 related markets

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?

ResolvedIran successfully targets shipping on...?$1,029 tracked1 signalIranIran CeasefireseizestrikeU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Price History — “No
88¢
66¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?

24d ago

$1,029 on Yes at 89¢

Related Theses

Brief ceasefire in late July
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 3 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Iran blockade ends late August
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 4 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran deal before June
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 5 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran talks won't be extended
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 1 related market
US-Iran 60 day negotiation per…
US-Iran talks will happen soon
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 3 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Iran halt comes in August
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 3 related markets
US announces halt in Iran offe…US announces halt in Iran offe…US announces halt in Iran offe…
Iran-Oman deal delayed past August
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 2 related markets
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by …Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by …
Saudi military action against Yemen occurs
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 1 related market
Will there be Saudi Arabian mi…
US-Iran talks after June 19
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 3 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Fable 5 returns by July 2
Wallet_0xa65c8 trades 5 related markets
Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…