Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,029.
Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, seize, strike, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Whale adds to thin-market conviction
A trader with a positive track record added $1,029 to an existing Yes position in an extremely illiquid market, making the bet notable despite limited evidence of exceptional skill.
- The $1,029 purchase was roughly 90 times the market’s 24-hour volume and exceeded its reported $727 liquidity.
- This bettor already held $2,341 of Yes shares and added again near 89%, signaling strong conviction in a quiet geopolitical market.
- The wallet is up $29,750 across 29 resolved markets, though its 62% win rate does not clearly establish a major edge at this price.
$1,029 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0xcb3b...a2b6 — Outcome 72287440, $492
- 0x0c2c...dce3 — Outcome 72287440, $50
- 0xda73...4d41 — Outcome 72287440, $50 (77% win rate)
- 0x11f8...e629 — Outcome 72287440, $33
- 0x3329...43a6 — Outcome 72287440, $20
- 0x557e...5007 — Outcome 72287440, $20 (68% win rate)
- 0xff7c...b233 — Outcome 72287440, $20 (51% win rate)
- 0x7a0d...53f7 — Outcome 72287440, $19 (43% win rate)
- 0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 72287440, $10
- 0x0314...2f6d — Outcome 72287440, $8
Related Theses
Brief ceasefire in late July
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Iran blockade ends late August
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Iran deal before June
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Iran talks won't be extended
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US-Iran talks will happen soon
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Iran halt comes in August
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Iran-Oman deal delayed past August
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Saudi military action against Yemen occurs
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US-Iran talks after June 19
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Fable 5 returns by July 2
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