Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,693.

Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, seize, strike, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

96% winner in No cluster

Surface because a highly profitable 96% lifetime bettor joined a 3-wallet No cluster that has already moved from 87-89¢ to 91¢.

  • One wallet in this cluster wins 96% of resolved bets and is up $266,853 lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought the same side, putting $3,693 on No at 87-89¢.
  • The position has already moved in their favor to 91¢, suggesting the market is following this flow.

$3,693 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x8c66...44f3 Yes, $11,092 (83% win rate)
  2. 0xc97b...47e5 No, $3,345 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x5011...220e No, $3,138 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x9f66...3a50 No, $2,544 (73% win rate)
  5. 0xe665...7d42 No, $2,500 (100% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $2,291 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $1,769
  8. 0xe8c4...395d No, $1,538 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x97ea...3363 No, $1,500 (69% win rate)
  10. 0xa9ac...c5d1 Yes, $1,333 (35% win rate)

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?

ResolvedIran successfully targets shipping on...?$3,693 tracked1 signalIranIran CeasefireseizestrikeU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Price History — “No
101¢
76¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?

2d ago

$3,693 on No at 88¢

88¢99¢11¢