Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,268.

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

$3,868 | Wallet win rate: 100%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

A proven profitable wallet with an 83% win rate is making a fresh $5.4k bet on a major geopolitics market, which is notable despite the otherwise modest signal mix.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $235.8k lifetime
  • They just put $5.4k into Yes at 73¢ on a major geopolitics market
  • The signal is modest, but this wallet is also betting across 2 related markets in the same event

$5,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $260,189 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xe885...38ef No, $87,831 (22% win rate)
  3. 0x3541...462e No, $78,352 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x7401...87c5 No, $59,551
  5. 0x88c4...129a Yes, $47,949 (85% win rate)
  6. 0x57cd...82ac No, $25,942
  7. 0x0d15...c454 No, $24,472
  8. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $24,099 (84% win rate)
  9. 0x162f...798d Yes, $19,606 (68% win rate)
  10. 0x0e89...5593 Yes, $17,513 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

87d$9,268 tracked2 signalsMiddle EastIranWorldTrumpIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIsrael x Iran
Yes
65¢
No
36¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

29m ago

$3,868

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

1d ago

$5,400 on Yes at 73¢

73¢65¢8¢

Related Theses

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | PolySpotter