Part of: Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Israel will publicly and definitively announce a halt to its military offensive in Lebanon by April 30, 2026. For the market to resolve Yes, an announcement must clearly cover both offensive ground operations and military strikes such as airstrikes or artillery fire. The market resolves by June 30, 2026 based on whether such a qualifying announcement is made before the deadline.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,129.
Categories: Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Lebanon, Israel
Notable Trades
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate sold Yes at 88¢, which translates into a strong buy-No signal from a bettor with a proven edge.
- This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $396k across 171 resolved markets.
- They trade across 46 related markets in 25 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢, a low-priced contrarian position against a market near 89% Yes.
$1,056 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% winner chasing momentum
A historically strong wallet with an 88% win rate bought into a fast-rising geopolitical market, suggesting conviction even after a sharp repricing.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k overall.
- They bought Yes at 77¢ after the market had already jumped more than 26 points, showing conviction in the move.
- The market moved 41.5 points in a day and still has only about $7.8k of liquidity, so a sharp trader’s entry stands out.
$1,073 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x0fd4...e561 — Outcome 97478328, $6,000
- 0xac62...dbec — Outcome 97478328, $4,885
- 0x473c...4f61 — Outcome 97478328, $3,648 (58% win rate)
- 0x1d0d...9b6e — Outcome 97478328, $2,030
- 0x496d...345e — Outcome 97478328, $1,000
- 0x8f12...1164 — Outcome 97478328, $1,000
- 0x4dbc...6ca9 — Outcome 97478328, $957
- 0x8fc9...489a — Outcome 97478328, $542
- 0x1acf...0705 — Outcome 97478328, $419
- 0x7d82...3531 — Outcome 97478328, $417
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