Part of: Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel will publicly and definitively announce a halt to its military offensive in Lebanon by April 30, 2026. For the market to resolve Yes, an announcement must clearly cover both offensive ground operations and military strikes such as airstrikes or artillery fire. The market resolves by June 30, 2026 based on whether such a qualifying announcement is made before the deadline.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,129.

Categories: Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Lebanon, Israel

Notable Trades

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate sold Yes at 88¢, which translates into a strong buy-No signal from a bettor with a proven edge.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $396k across 171 resolved markets.
  • They trade across 46 related markets in 25 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢, a low-priced contrarian position against a market near 89% Yes.

$1,056 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

88% winner chasing momentum

A historically strong wallet with an 88% win rate bought into a fast-rising geopolitical market, suggesting conviction even after a sharp repricing.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k overall.
  • They bought Yes at 77¢ after the market had already jumped more than 26 points, showing conviction in the move.
  • The market moved 41.5 points in a day and still has only about $7.8k of liquidity, so a sharp trader’s entry stands out.

$1,073 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0fd4...e561 Outcome 97478328, $6,000
  2. 0xac62...dbec Outcome 97478328, $4,885
  3. 0x473c...4f61 Outcome 97478328, $3,648 (58% win rate)
  4. 0x1d0d...9b6e Outcome 97478328, $2,030
  5. 0x496d...345e Outcome 97478328, $1,000
  6. 0x8f12...1164 Outcome 97478328, $1,000
  7. 0x4dbc...6ca9 Outcome 97478328, $957
  8. 0x8fc9...489a Outcome 97478328, $542
  9. 0x1acf...0705 Outcome 97478328, $419
  10. 0x7d82...3531 Outcome 97478328, $417

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Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

29dIsrael announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?$2,129 tracked2 signalsHezbollahGeopoliticsIsrael x IranLebanonIsrael

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Notable Trades

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

44d ago

$1,056 on No at 12¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

45d ago

$1,073 on Yes at 77¢

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