Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 30, resolving Yes if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting all or most Israeli commercial aviation. PolySpotter is tracking $10,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including a recent cross-market Israel thesis alert. The market resolves based on whether the qualifying airspace closure occurs by the deadline stated in the rules.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $10,000.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Cross-market Israel thesis
Large cross-market bettor is backing the same Israel airspace thesis with $62.6k across 3 related markets, though the wallet's lifetime P&L is negative.
- This wallet has put $62.6k across 3 related markets, all pointing to a broad Israel airspace view.
- The latest trade is a $10k buy on No at 84¢, implying they see closure risk as overstated.
- The bettor has won 73% of resolved trades, but is down lifetime, so this is more a conviction signal than a proven-sharp wallet.
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $49,425 (73% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $37,879 (23% win rate)
- 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $23,205 (92% win rate)
- 0x6992...6c1d — Yes, $7,000 (33% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $6,450 (72% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $5,000 (96% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $4,510 (65% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $4,247 (47% win rate)
- 0xc881...b071 — Yes, $3,895 (67% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $3,234 (90% win rate)
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Israel keeps airspace open
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Crude stays below $110
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