Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by May 31, resolving Yes only for a broad closure or suspension affecting all or most Israeli commercial aviation. PolySpotter is tracking $1,000 in smart money activity on this market, with the latest signals showing a 91% winner buying No. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying closure occurs by the stated deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,388.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

91% winner buys NO

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate bought No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market, though the stake is modest.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $769k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 31 events and 46 markets, with $1.45M total deployed.
  • Buying No at 79¢ shows confidence that Israel will not trigger a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% winner buys NO

Proven 91% winner with large lifetime profits is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the position is modest and currently available below their entry.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up $765K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 44 related markets with $1.4M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.
  • They bought No at 88¢, while the market is now around 82¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s price.

$1,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa022...77f8 No, $12,019 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x88c4...129a No, $6,897 (91% win rate)
  3. 0x49f2...d7b4 Yes, $5,005 (46% win rate)
  4. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $4,168 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $3,798 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x10e1...aa05 Yes, $3,430 (18% win rate)
  7. 0xe7f4...bc90 Yes, $3,228 (28% win rate)
  8. 0xd654...dd72 Yes, $2,398
  9. 0x859d...fccb Yes, $2,219
  10. 0x836f...906e No, $2,021 (100% win rate)

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Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

23dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,388 tracked2 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
21¢
No
80¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
91¢
74¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

51m ago

$1,000 on No at 79¢

79¢80¢1¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

4h ago

$1,388 on No at 88¢

88¢80¢8¢

Related Theses