Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanon by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if Israel publicly says the withdrawal is complete by that deadline, while announcements of a future or planned pullout do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking $13,006 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $13,006.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitical whale

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profit made a $13k buy of No in a previously quiet geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction rather than routine flow.

  • This bettor has won 565 of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
  • They dropped $13k on No, more than 9x this market’s prior 24-hour volume
  • The buy came at 89¢, showing a strong view that withdrawal by May 2026 is unlikely

$13,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $33,245 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xfd66...fb6d Yes, $15,000 (14% win rate)
  3. 0x67d0...db7a Yes, $14,160 (35% win rate)
  4. 0x6992...6c1d Yes, $6,110
  5. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $3,500 (57% win rate)
  6. 0xd8d5...8935 No, $1,300 (75% win rate)
  7. 0x9902...34b3 No, $1,117 (49% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $1,016 (48% win rate)
  9. 0xea41...1c98 Yes, $981
  10. 0xa465...6b06 Yes, $910

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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

73d$13,006 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Price History — “No
92¢
81¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

2h ago

$13,006 on No at 89¢

89¢90¢1¢

Related Theses

Israel Lebanon Withdrawal Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter