Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $13,006.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitical whale
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profit made a $13k buy of No in a previously quiet geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction rather than routine flow.
- This bettor has won 565 of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
- They dropped $13k on No, more than 9x this market’s prior 24-hour volume
- The buy came at 89¢, showing a strong view that withdrawal by May 2026 is unlikely
$13,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 64306271, $7,062 (52% win rate)
- 0x42a8...70a5 — Outcome 64306271, $5,986 (12% win rate)
- 0x7fc6...7306 — Outcome 64306271, $5,065
- 0xe94b...5abe — Outcome 64306271, $3,665 (73% win rate)
- 0x5139...9402 — Outcome 64306271, $2,285
- 0x8a98...1b92 — Outcome 64306271, $2,241 (54% win rate)
- 0x9952...2edb — Outcome 64306271, $2,000
- 0x3d29...a996 — Outcome 64306271, $2,000
- 0x3ce0...59d5 — Outcome 64306271, $1,847
- 0x70e2...5c64 — Outcome 64306271, $1,818
Related Theses
Hormuz blockade lifts in June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran airspace stays open
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran talks happen in June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal after May
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by mid-May
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closure timing mispriced
Covers 5 related markets
US gets Iranian uranium soon
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace by June
Covers 5 related markets
Nuclear deal by year-end
Covers 3 related markets
