Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $13,006.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitical whale

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profit made a $13k buy of No in a previously quiet geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction rather than routine flow.

  • This bettor has won 565 of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
  • They dropped $13k on No, more than 9x this market’s prior 24-hour volume
  • The buy came at 89¢, showing a strong view that withdrawal by May 2026 is unlikely

$13,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0042...321e Outcome 64306271, $7,062 (52% win rate)
  2. 0x42a8...70a5 Outcome 64306271, $5,986 (12% win rate)
  3. 0x7fc6...7306 Outcome 64306271, $5,065
  4. 0xe94b...5abe Outcome 64306271, $3,665 (73% win rate)
  5. 0x5139...9402 Outcome 64306271, $2,285
  6. 0x8a98...1b92 Outcome 64306271, $2,241 (54% win rate)
  7. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 64306271, $2,000
  8. 0x3d29...a996 Outcome 64306271, $2,000
  9. 0x3ce0...59d5 Outcome 64306271, $1,847
  10. 0x70e2...5c64 Outcome 64306271, $1,818

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade lifts in June

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Iran airspace stays open

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US-Iran talks happen in June

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Iran deal after May

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Iran deal by mid-May

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Iran closure timing mispriced

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US gets Iranian uranium soon

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Iran closes airspace by June

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Nuclear deal by year-end

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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?$13,006 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

128d ago

$13,006 on No at 89¢

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade lifts in June
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Iran airspace stays open
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US-Iran talks happen in June
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Iran deal after May
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Iran closure timing mispriced
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US gets Iranian uranium soon
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Iran closes airspace by June
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Nuclear deal by year-end
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