Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,305.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

94% winner scales into coordinated Yes

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added to Yes alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $174,458 in profit.
  • Nineteen linked wallets share the same funder, while market volume surged 112x its historical average.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position at 70%, implying strong conviction despite the current price near 67%.

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Proven event trader buys Yes

A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate and substantial edge is buying Yes amid a major event-level volume surge and broad cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 75% of 345 resolved trades and is up $694,207 lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ while positioning across six markets tied to the same Israel-Iran event.
  • The market saw a 48.1x historical volume spike, with Yes recently rising to 81%.

$2,340 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

94% winner scales into coordinated Yes

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added to Yes alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $174,458 in profit.
  • Nineteen linked wallets share the same funder, while market volume surged 112x its historical average.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position at 70%, implying strong conviction despite the current price near 67%.

$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Serial trader scaling into ceasefire

An established serial trader placed an $8.9k Yes bet amid a 112x volume spike and coordinated positioning across three related markets.

  • This bettor has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $760,000 in lifetime profit.
  • The $8,876 Yes bet represents about 30% of market liquidity and came during a 112x historical volume spike.
  • The trader has positioned across three related markets in this event, totaling $15,040 in exposure.

$8,876 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

94% bettor leads coordinated Yes buying

A proven 94% bettor and two linked-wallet networks are adding roughly $8,200 to Yes at 68–71%, creating a strong coordinated conviction signal.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $170,386, with a meaningful edge over the odds paid.
  • Three wallets added $8,178 to Yes at 68–71%, while linked funding networks show broader positioning on the same thesis.
  • The sharp wallet is adding to an existing Yes position rather than merely taking profits, reinforcing the conviction.

$23,489 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 10015547, $73,542 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xe36f...cd91 Outcome 10015547, $29,872 (87% win rate)
  3. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 10015547, $27,782 (67% win rate)
  4. 0xff34...bf20 Outcome 10015547, $20,074
  5. 0xaacb...90cb Outcome 10015547, $10,781 (70% win rate)
  6. 0x758c...074a Outcome 10015547, $10,224 (14% win rate)
  7. 0xbc73...2c0e Outcome 10015547, $9,480
  8. 0x74ff...fcd9 Outcome 10015547, $8,395
  9. 0x8c2f...1a88 Outcome 10015547, $7,594 (55% win rate)
  10. 0x4737...a54a Outcome 10015547, $5,361 (57% win rate)

Related Theses

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

World Cup favorites prevail

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Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Covers 11 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$39,305 tracked5 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
78¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

7d ago

$1,800 on Yes at 70¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

7d ago

$2,340 on Yes at 78¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

7d ago

$2,800 on Yes at 70¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

7d ago

$8,876 on Yes at 71¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

7d ago

$23,489 on Yes at 70¢

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