Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

This prediction market tracks whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through August 9 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves to “Yes” if no qualifying military action occurs between the two countries before the deadline, or “No” otherwise. PolySpotter has recorded $7,031 in tracked smart money and one recent signal: a serial cross-market bettor added Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,031.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor adds Yes

A proven but only moderately sharp serial trader added a large Yes position in a thin market, though the current price has already risen above the weighted entry.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 90 resolved trades and is up $58,455 lifetime.
  • They added $7,031 to Yes in a market with only $4,434 in 24-hour volume, including a $5,607 purchase at 75¢.
  • The position is already marked up to 88¢, so the trade is worth studying but should not be chased above 87¢.

$7,031 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf96...9942 Yes, $1,680 (78% win rate)
  2. 0xf3fa...7be3 No, $1,480
  3. 0x9e25...57c7 Yes, $610 (27% win rate)
  4. 0x1cfc...2111 No, $409
  5. 0xaa6f...1dfe No, $266 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $259 (90% win rate)
  7. 0xc602...7fc1 No, $237 (43% win rate)
  8. 0xdc15...cca6 No, $204
  9. 0x9db3...1d38 No, $200
  10. 0xb969...089e No, $114

Related Theses

Starmer exits by June 2026

Covers 6 related markets

Iran surrenders in June

Covers 4 related markets

US-Iran talks get extended

Covers 1 related market

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 3 related markets

No Ukraine ceasefire by August

Covers 1 related market

U.S. won’t invade Iran before 2027

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Iran nuclear deal fails

Covers 1 related market

No US-Iran meeting by July

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz disruptions persist past September

Covers 1 related market

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

12dIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$7,031 tracked1 signalIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
84¢
No
17¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
85¢
66¢
47¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

3h ago

$7,031 on Yes at 77¢

77¢84¢7¢

Related Theses