Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $139,996.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor-led No cluster
Three wallets, including a highly profitable 94% winner, sold Yes together at 85–87¢ despite the market rising to 94%, creating a notable contrarian No signal though prior positions suggest profit-taking.
- Three wallets sold $6,818 of Yes at 85–87¢, implying a coordinated buy-No view around 13–15¢.
- One bettor wins 94% of 257 resolved trades and is up $175,865 lifetime.
- All three had previously held Yes, so some of this move may be profit-taking rather than entirely new No conviction.
$6,818 on No
Serial trader scales into Yes
A proven serial cross-market trader is adding $40.4K to an already $79.9K Yes position, with the market subsequently rising from roughly 90% to 94%.
- This bettor has won 65% of 213 resolved trades and is up $117,451 lifetime.
- They added $40,385 to Yes at 88–90% while already holding $79,891, showing strong conviction in continued ceasefire.
- The market moved from about 90% to 94% after the purchases, though the high current price leaves limited upside.
$40,385 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
94% winner adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a Yes position at 56¢ while belonging to a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $173,441 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to Yes at 56¢ despite already holding $3,380, signaling continued conviction.
- It belongs to a 19-wallet cluster sharing a common funder and has traded across 51 events.
$2,882 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Serial event trader scaling Yes
A serial cross-market trader with a meaningful long-term record is adding nearly $20,000 to an existing Yes position across six related markets.
- This bettor has won 64% of 211 resolved trades and is up $113,000 lifetime.
- They added nearly $20,000 to Yes while already holding $24,700, signaling increased conviction.
- The wallet has positioned across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with nearly $99,000 committed.
$10,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢, showing increased conviction despite the market already pricing an 80% chance.
- This bettor is up $103,435 lifetime across 208 resolved bets, with a 64% win rate.
- The wallet has traded 56 events and is positioning across four markets tied to this event.
- This is an increase to an existing Yes position, with $1,317 added at 79¢ as odds move higher.
$1,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢, showing increased conviction despite the market already pricing an 80% chance.
- This bettor is up $103,435 lifetime across 208 resolved bets, with a 64% win rate.
- The wallet has traded 56 events and is positioning across four markets tied to this event.
- This is an increase to an existing Yes position, with $1,317 added at 79¢ as odds move higher.
$8,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Serial event trader scaling Yes
A serial cross-market trader with a meaningful long-term record is adding nearly $20,000 to an existing Yes position across six related markets.
- This bettor has won 64% of 211 resolved trades and is up $113,000 lifetime.
- They added nearly $20,000 to Yes while already holding $24,700, signaling increased conviction.
- The wallet has positioned across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with nearly $99,000 committed.
$19,824 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support this Yes bet, though the individual wallet's 67% record is not independently sharp at its high average win price.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The linked trader group has placed $131,733 across 11 markets in the same event.
- The individual wallet is up $96,627 lifetime, but its 67% win rate is less compelling because winning bets average 92¢.
$2,506 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support this Yes bet, though the individual wallet's 67% record is not independently sharp at its high average win price.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The linked trader group has placed $131,733 across 11 markets in the same event.
- The individual wallet is up $96,627 lifetime, but its 67% win rate is less compelling because winning bets average 92¢.
$1,860 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Experienced serial trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader made a fresh $5.4K Yes purchase at 68¢ while holding a 75% win rate across 345 resolved bets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 345 resolved trades and earned $694,207 in P&L.
- They placed a fresh $5,406 bet on Yes at 68¢, now marked around 70¢.
- The wallet has traded seven markets tied to this event, totaling about $30,000, signaling concentrated attention.
$1,190 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 54486775, $86,767 (76% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 54486775, $80,313 (73% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 54486775, $33,865 (52% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 54486775, $18,547 (70% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 54486775, $12,610 (43% win rate)
- 0x5f40...05bc — Outcome 54486775, $10,000
- 0x8db0...8df7 — Outcome 54486775, $8,468
- 0x758c...074a — Outcome 54486775, $6,260 (14% win rate)
- 0xd08e...2f7c — Outcome 54486775, $5,835 (33% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 54486775, $5,265 (28% win rate)
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