Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

This Israel-Iran prediction market asks whether a ceasefire will remain in effect through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if the ceasefire continues and No if either country takes a qualifying military action, such as an airstrike, against the other. PolySpotter is tracking $4,473 in smart-money activity across one signal, with recent alerts showing both No and Yes positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,935.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Israel Election

Notable Trades

Serial trader trimming event exposure

A profitable serial trader has positioned across eight markets in this event, though this Yes sale appears to trim a much larger existing position rather than open a fresh No bet.

  • This trader is up $374,555 across 1,234 resolved bets and has traded in 109 events.
  • They have positioned $86,327 across eight markets in this event, with activity spanning prior scans.
  • The $5,528 Yes sale is against an existing $55,010 Yes position, so it may be trimming exposure rather than a fresh bearish bet.

$4,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader trimming event exposure

A profitable serial trader has positioned across eight markets in this event, though this Yes sale appears to trim a much larger existing position rather than open a fresh No bet.

  • This trader is up $374,555 across 1,234 resolved bets and has traded in 109 events.
  • They have positioned $86,327 across eight markets in this event, with activity spanning prior scans.
  • The $5,528 Yes sale is against an existing $55,010 Yes position, so it may be trimming exposure rather than a fresh bearish bet.

$9,163 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader trimming event exposure

A profitable serial trader has positioned across eight markets in this event, though this Yes sale appears to trim a much larger existing position rather than open a fresh No bet.

  • This trader is up $374,555 across 1,234 resolved bets and has traded in 109 events.
  • They have positioned $86,327 across eight markets in this event, with activity spanning prior scans.
  • The $5,528 Yes sale is against an existing $55,010 Yes position, so it may be trimming exposure rather than a fresh bearish bet.

$5,528 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Funded cluster favors No

A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning for No across 13 related markets, with a direct $1,675 No purchase despite the wallet's routine Yes exit being less informative.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder have deployed $3,658 toward the same thesis.
  • This serial trader is active across 13 markets in the event and has won 66% of 200 resolved bets.
  • The fresh No purchase was made at 33¢, implying roughly a 3x payoff if the ceasefire fails.

$4,473 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial cross-market traders back No

Three wallets committed nearly $4.8K to No, including a serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate, though some activity appears to be position management.

  • Three wallets created nearly $4,800 of one-sided exposure against the ceasefire continuing, with two Yes sells equivalent to buying No at 38¢.
  • One bettor has won 72% of 578 resolved trades and another has traded across 142 events, providing meaningful historical context.
  • The strongest wallet was already building a No position, while one Yes seller appears to be closing a position rather than making a wholly new bet.

$4,789 on No

Funded cluster favors No

A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning for No across 13 related markets, with a direct $1,675 No purchase despite the wallet's routine Yes exit being less informative.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder have deployed $3,658 toward the same thesis.
  • This serial trader is active across 13 markets in the event and has won 66% of 200 resolved bets.
  • The fresh No purchase was made at 33¢, implying roughly a 3x payoff if the ceasefire fails.

$3,658 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader doubles down on Yes

A serial cross-market trader is adding $17,365 to an existing Yes position while expressing the same thesis across seven related markets, though their historical results do not show clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader added $17,365 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment in the market to about $44,000.
  • They are positioning across seven related markets with $80,827 committed, indicating a broad and concentrated ceasefire thesis.
  • The wallet has completed 1,187 bets with a 67% win rate and is up about $201,000, but its average winning entry price is high at 81¢.

$17,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x162f...798d — Yes, $46,276 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x5d8a...f2d9 — No, $41,163 (65% win rate)
  3. 0xd104...acef — No, $40,000 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xc390...2a1f — No, $38,195
  5. 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $27,582 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x776f...0478 — No, $24,678
  7. 0x62cf...5826 — Yes, $13,889 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x88e2...7489 — Yes, $13,421 (50% win rate)
  9. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $12,004 (53% win rate)
  10. 0xc3db...0f98 — No, $9,760 (33% win rate)

Related Theses

Ceasefire holds through August

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Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

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Iran deal after April 22

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Iran deal before June

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Hormuz lift before June

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Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through year-end

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$49,935 tracked7 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIsrael Election
Yes
34¢
No
67¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
72¢
64¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-10-05 21:04 UTC

$4,960 on No at 38¢

38¢→67¢↑29¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-10-03 05:50 UTC

$9,163 on No at 38¢

38¢→67¢↑29¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-10-02 06:46 UTC

$5,528 on No at 38¢

38¢→67¢↑29¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-09-08 08:22 UTC

$4,473 on No at 33¢

33¢→67¢↑34¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-09-03 11:49 UTC

$4,789 on No at 38¢

38¢→67¢↑29¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-08-31 18:56 UTC

$3,658 on No at 33¢

33¢→67¢↑34¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

2026-08-17 12:21 UTC

$17,365 on Yes at 65¢

65¢→34¢↓31¢

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