Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,719.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with 79% wins and a substantial edge bought $1,719 of Yes at 82%.

  • This bettor wins 79% of 297 resolved trades and is up $858,000 lifetime.
  • The wallet’s results imply a 17-point edge over its average entry odds, making the 82¢ Yes purchase notable despite the high price.
  • The trader has participated across 77 events and 205 markets, indicating broad, repeatable experience rather than a one-off bet.

$1,719 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x35bb...009b Outcome 43233970, $66,839 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 43233970, $25,484 (66% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 43233970, $18,123 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x0d05...6a81 Outcome 43233970, $15,855 (14% win rate)
  5. 0x48a5...47f5 Outcome 43233970, $15,414 (75% win rate)
  6. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 43233970, $9,173 (29% win rate)
  7. 0xd5de...ac1a Outcome 43233970, $6,172 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xbacd...ab35 Outcome 43233970, $5,731 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x9116...fe64 Outcome 43233970, $5,350
  10. 0xa9ac...c5d1 Outcome 43233970, $5,110 (34% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$1,719 tracked1 signalIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
87¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

8d ago

$1,719 on Yes at 82¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…