Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

This Israel-Iran prediction market asks whether the ceasefire will remain in effect through July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves Yes if no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran; otherwise, it resolves No. Live odds are displayed on the market page, with $8,900 in tracked smart money and mixed recent signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

37 smart money signals detected, totaling $249,113.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$2,854 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$4,492 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are adding to a Yes position across five related markets, creating a meaningful coordinated ceasefire thesis despite only moderate historical edge.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder deployed $4,176 toward Yes, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader is adding to an existing $13,860 Yes position while positioning across five markets in the same event.
  • The wallet has won 69% of 102 resolved bets and has traded 32 events, though its average winning entry price is high at 92%.

$7,508 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$1,363 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$2,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$2,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, while this repeat trader is adding to an existing position despite the market pricing No at only 30%.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same ceasefire market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • This trader has 81 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $57,712 in reported profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 30¢, implying meaningful downside risk to the ceasefire continuation.

$1,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable serial trader scales into Yes

A profitable serial trader added $11.6K to an existing Yes position amid a 110.7x volume surge and sharp market repricing.

  • This trader has won 65% of 181 resolved bets and is up $92,127 lifetime.
  • The $11,600 purchase adds to an existing Yes position during a 110.7x historical volume spike.
  • Yes has risen 55% over the past week, confirming strong market momentum but leaving a relatively expensive 88¢ entry.

$47,724 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $95,209 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xc851...cd2a Yes, $87,466 (51% win rate)
  3. 0x7bc1...8db4 No, $86,936 (66% win rate)
  4. 0xbfdd...e70e Yes, $52,222 (72% win rate)
  5. 0x52f5...19da Yes, $44,821 (55% win rate)
  6. 0x8d4b...07cb No, $39,300 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xe3cb...ac21 Yes, $38,354 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x9592...a7b8 No, $30,000 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x7447...a16d No, $29,532 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x6cd8...d98d Yes, $24,445 (59% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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World Cup favorites prevail

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

3dIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$249,113 tracked37 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
95¢
No
5¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
72¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

23h ago

$8,900 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$2,854 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$4,492 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$7,508 on Yes at 71¢

71¢95¢24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$1,363 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$2,960 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$2,700 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$2,088 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

1d ago

$1,584 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$47,724 on Yes at 87¢

87¢95¢8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$58,835 on Yes at 87¢

87¢95¢8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$3,560 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$2,347 on Yes at 87¢

87¢95¢8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$13,947 on Yes at 87¢

87¢95¢8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$3,480 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$11,600 on Yes at 87¢

87¢95¢8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$1,051 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$1,637 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$6,295 on Yes at 71¢

71¢95¢24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$3,824 on No at 20¢

20¢5¢15¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$7,145 on Yes at 81¢

81¢95¢14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

2d ago

$3,126 on Yes at 71¢

71¢95¢24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

3d ago

$1,400 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

3d ago

$4,176 on Yes at 71¢

71¢95¢24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

3d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 55¢

55¢95¢40¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

4d ago

$1,906 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

4d ago

$1,848 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

4d ago

$11,253 on No at 37¢

37¢5¢32¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

5d ago

$2,130 on No at 27¢

27¢5¢22¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

5d ago

$1,760 on No at 30¢

30¢5¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

6d ago

$1,766 on No at 50¢

50¢5¢45¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

7d ago

$1,140 on No at 27¢

27¢5¢22¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

8d ago

$1,165 on No at 50¢

50¢5¢45¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

8d ago

$1,986 on No at 50¢

50¢5¢45¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

8d ago

$5,883 on Yes at 63¢

63¢95¢32¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

8d ago

$6,919 on Yes at 73¢

73¢95¢22¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

9d ago

$1,757 on No at 50¢

50¢5¢45¢

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