Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
This Polymarket market tracks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if no qualifying military action occurs between the two countries before the cutoff, and No otherwise. PolySpotter currently tracks $6,581 in smart money across one signal, with recent experienced wallets adding to Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,878.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Linked cluster scaling into Yes
Six linked wallets added roughly $12,000 to Yes at an average 70 cents, alongside a serial cross-market trader group with a 93% win rate and a 6-point price rise.
- Six linked wallets collectively added $12,003 to Yes at an average entry near 70¢.
- The wallets were adding to existing Yes positions, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Related cross-market activity includes a serial trader spanning 69 events with a 93% win rate, while Yes has risen 6 points in one day.
$12,003 on Yes
Proven bettor adds to Yes
A proven but only modestly edge-positive bettor added $6,875 to Yes in a thin geopolitical market, representing 277% of 24-hour volume.
- This bettor has won 88% of 32 resolved trades and is up $3,025 overall.
- The $6,875 Yes purchase was 277% of the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a thin market.
- The wallet was already holding Yes at 78¢, so this is an add to an existing position rather than a fresh thesis.
$6,875 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $47,162 (69% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — No, $25,200 (44% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $20,778 (62% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $13,495 (91% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — Yes, $12,224 (78% win rate)
- 0x6bab...0fe5 — Yes, $10,419 (73% win rate)
- 0xf67c...0d14 — Yes, $8,832 (88% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $7,801 (48% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — No, $7,494 (30% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $5,125 (72% win rate)
Related Theses
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 2 related markets
