Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,408.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

85% win-rate event bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate bought No at 86¢ in a meaningful event-driven market, making this a credible sharp follow signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $415k lifetime
They trade across 35 events and 81 related markets, which points to a repeatable event-trading edge
They bought No at 86¢ while the market still shows 85%, a high-confidence stance in a real news-driven market

$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

85% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is making a fresh cross-market event bet, buying No at 86¢ in a geopolitically driven market despite only a modest composite score.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, a high-confidence position that matches the market's current 85% pricing.
They've also bet related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$1,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial event trader buying No

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a solid 70% win rate is taking a fresh $3,000 No position in a news-driven geopolitical market at 77¢.

This bettor has won 203 of 291 resolved trades and is up $34.5k lifetime
They have traded 33 related markets across 27 events, which suggests a repeatable event-based process
They bought No at 77¢ in a news-driven market with only about $5.9k of 24h volume

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 21598683, $10,000 (56% win rate)
0x62cf...5826 — Outcome 21598683, $9,951 (66% win rate)
0xa539...76ee — Outcome 21598683, $6,578
0x72fa...5e4e — Outcome 21598683, $6,259
0xa0bc...d428 — Outcome 21598683, $3,233
0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 21598683, $3,061 (44% win rate)
0x7319...0299 — Outcome 21598683, $2,988 (25% win rate)
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 21598683, $2,408 (43% win rate)
0x872e...e58f — Outcome 21598683, $2,007 (49% win rate)
0xe2cb...6e8f — Outcome 21598683, $1,827

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

ResolvedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?$5,408 tracked3 signalsMiddle EastIsraelIranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.