Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms a ceasefire agreement; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently has one tracked smart money signal showing a Yes consensus, while live odds may change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,865.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

Three-wallet Yes consensus

Three wallets collectively positioned for Yes, including a highly experienced profitable bettor, while the market has risen 18% over one day, though much of the activity adds to existing positions.

  • Three wallets committed nearly $4,865 to Yes, including a No sale equivalent to buying Yes at 46¢.
  • The market moved up 18% in one day as this coordinated Yes positioning accumulated.
  • One bettor has resolved 1,653 trades with a 71% win rate and $72,385 in profit, though existing positions reduce the signal's freshness.

$4,865 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x6fc7...43a1 No, $5,024
  2. 0x32b4...7f09 No, $5,014 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x06d3...b956 No, $3,560 (87% win rate)
  4. 0xe234...304a No, $3,520 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a Yes, $3,108 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $3,054 (71% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $2,252
  8. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $1,267
  9. 0xb17d...59ae Yes, $1,250 (82% win rate)
  10. 0xcf6a...f9d0 Yes, $1,200 (37% win rate)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

201dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$4,865 tracked1 signalUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
39¢
No
61¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
70¢
60¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

6d ago

$4,865 on Yes at 46¢

46¢39¢7¢