Part of: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,128.

Categories: Mexico, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor exits rallied Yes

A highly profitable bettor from a five-wallet funded cluster sold Yes after a sharp rally, though the prior position suggests this may be profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $1.74 million lifetime.
Five wallets sharing a funder have repeatedly appeared in the market, indicating coordinated positioning.
The wallet sold Yes at 85¢ after entering around 75¢, so the trade may primarily reflect profit-taking after Yes surged 73% in a week.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Linked cluster catches sharp No repricing

Four linked wallets deployed $18,070 on No near 50–57¢, including bettors with exceptional win rates, while the market rapidly repriced to 99% No.

Four wallets sharing a funder bought $18,070 of No at 49–57¢, driving a rapid 44-point move.
One participating bettor wins 98% of resolved trades, while another wins 87% with a meaningful edge over entry odds.
The move has already repriced No to 99%, so the original entry advantage is largely gone.

$18,070 on No

Six-wallet coordinated No bet

Six linked wallets are aligned on a meaningful No position in a market showing sharp recent Yes momentum, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth monitoring despite limited bet size.

Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on the same market, totaling $1,359 in positioning.
The trade sells Yes at 27¢, equivalent to buying No at 73¢ despite Yes rising 25.9% over the past day.
The lead wallet has won 68% of 112 resolved bets, though its average winning entry price is very high at 93%.

$1,359 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 10119986, $42,245 (74% win rate)
0x55c5...1710 — Outcome 10119986, $35,713 (64% win rate)
0x9951...11bd — Outcome 10119986, $31,858 (81% win rate)
0x8c0b...f0fb — Outcome 10119986, $30,867 (74% win rate)
0xcd71...d127 — Outcome 10119986, $26,932 (81% win rate)
0xbacd...ab35 — Outcome 10119986, $18,369 (49% win rate)
0xba2c...bf17 — Outcome 10119986, $15,971
0xe25b...0f1b — Outcome 10119986, $15,000 (57% win rate)
0x4067...6ffa — Outcome 10119986, $12,089 (46% win rate)
0xc5f5...5d54 — Outcome 10119986, $10,000 (33% win rate)

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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

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Iranian blockade ends mid-August

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Agreement text released June 17

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Mojtaba Khamenei stays out of public

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Iran will end uranium enrichment

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U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

ResolvedU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?$21,128 tracked3 signalsMexicoPoliticsGeopoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”

102¢

52¢

2¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction