Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will sign a qualifying written agreement by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $8,165 in smart money activity across 3 signals, including alerts such as high-win traders clustering and a 98% winner buying Yes. The market resolves after the deadline, with a Yes outcome requiring authorized representatives from both countries to sign the same document or matching acceptance documents.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,114.

Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes with $8.75k amid a major volume spike and sharp upward price move.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $240k lifetime.
  • They have traded 52 related events with about $599k deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • They bought $8.75k of Yes as volume spiked over 260x and the market rose 21 points in a day.

$8,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes into a major volume spike and strong upward price move on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has traded 287 resolved markets with a 63% win rate and is up $127K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 29 events with $175K in similar event bets tracked.
  • Market activity surged 269x above its recent average, while Yes has jumped 21 points in the past day.

$4,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

98% winner buying Yes

Surfacing because this is an exceptionally proven cross-market trader with a 98% resolved win rate buying Yes amid a major volume and price surge.

  • This bettor has won 98% of 1,547 resolved trades and is up $37,442 lifetime.
  • They have traded across 533 markets with over $3.0M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
  • The market saw a 58x volume spike and Yes is up 17.5 points in 24 hours.

$4,394 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate bought Yes during a major volume and price surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,093 markets and is up $179,818 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.77M deployed across 178 events.
  • The market is seeing a 58.5x volume spike and Yes is up 17.5 points in 24 hours.

$2,011 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader buying YES

Seasoned cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into a sharp volume and price surge on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has 1,444 resolved trades and is up $97,740 lifetime.
  • Market activity spiked 58x while Yes jumped 17.5 points in the past day.
  • They bought Yes at 88¢, signaling confidence despite already-high odds.

$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

High-win serial traders cluster

Three wallets bought Yes together after a major volume spike, including two high-win serial cross-market traders with positive lifetime P&L.

  • Two serial cross-market bettors joined this move, including one with a 98% record and another up $179k lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought $10.8k of Yes at 88¢ in the same two-minute window.
  • The market has surged 17.5 points today with a huge volume spike, suggesting momentum behind the Yes side.

$10,799 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x5739...5f1a No, $102,466 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x9507...7b04 Yes, $46,386 (89% win rate)
  3. 0xb8b4...1f6e No, $43,063 (68% win rate)
  4. 0x4e3d...8554 Yes, $27,683 (41% win rate)
  5. 0x641b...5433 Yes, $20,000 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x92a6...8b84 Yes, $17,429 (98% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $14,858
  8. 0x7750...5226 Yes, $10,903
  9. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $10,899 (68% win rate)
  10. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $10,319 (57% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran leadership changes by December

Covers 6 related markets

Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

Starmer exits in June

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

15dUS and Iran sign an agreement by...?$32,114 tracked6 signalsIranTreatyU.S. x IranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
71¢
40¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

1h ago

$8,750 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

1h ago

$4,400 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$4,394 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$2,011 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$1,760 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$10,799 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Related Theses