Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,176.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor adds to No

A proven but not exceptionally sharp wallet is adding to an existing No position in a thin market while expressing a consistent view across four related markets.

  • The wallet has placed bets across four related markets, with three detected in prior runs and a consistent directional view.
  • This $1,773 addition represents 148% of the market’s reported 24-hour volume, making it meaningful in a thin market.
  • The bettor already holds $2,860 of No at 62¢, so this is added conviction rather than a new position; its 66% win rate is solid but not clearly above its typical 72¢ winning entry price.

$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate made a concentrated No position in an exceptionally thin market, suggesting meaningful conviction.

  • This bettor wins 69% of 62 resolved trades and is up $76,385 lifetime.
  • The wallet committed $2,403 to No in a market with only $1,195 of 24-hour volume.
  • The position spans three markets in the same event, reflecting a broader directional thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$2,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Related Theses

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 9 related markets

Ceasefire holds through September

Covers 4 related markets

No end to blockade in 2026

Covers 8 related markets

US-Iran ceasefire holds through year-end

Covers 5 related markets

Iran ceasefire holds into November

Covers 5 related markets

Iran blockade ends by September

Covers 7 related markets

Ceasefire comes in early August

Covers 3 related markets

No Mythos-Class Model by August 2026

Covers 1 related market

Trump-Putin won’t meet in China

Covers 1 related market

Scott Jennings won’t become press secretary

Covers 1 related market

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$4,176 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

2026-08-08 11:07 UTC

$1,773 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

2026-08-08 10:25 UTC

$2,403 on No at 54¢

54¢→100¢↑46¢

Related Theses

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Wallet_0x524db trades 9 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Ceasefire holds through September
Wallet_0x62cf4 trades 4 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
No end to blockade in 2026
Wallet_0x62cf4 trades 8 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
US-Iran ceasefire holds through year-end
Wallet_0x62cf4 trades 5 related markets
US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Iran ceasefire holds into November
Wallet_0x524db trades 5 related markets
US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Iran blockade ends by September
Wallet_0x524db trades 7 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Ceasefire comes in early August
Wallet_0x62cf4 trades 3 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
No Mythos-Class Model by August 2026
Wallet_0x524db trades 1 related market
Next Mythos-Class Model releas…
Trump-Putin won’t meet in China
Wallet_0x524db trades 1 related market
Will Trump and Putin meet next…
Scott Jennings won’t become press secretary
Wallet_0x524db trades 1 related market
Will Scott Jennings be the nex…