Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,177.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate added $1,287 to an existing No position as No moved sharply higher, though the historical record is not clearly edge-adjusted.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 2,684 resolved bets across 141 markets and 58 events.
  • The $1,287 purchase was more than 14 times the detected 24-hour volume and helped accompany a sharp move toward No.
  • The trader is adding to an existing No position at 75¢, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 14.

$1,710 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate added $1,287 to an existing No position as No moved sharply higher, though the historical record is not clearly edge-adjusted.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 2,684 resolved bets across 141 markets and 58 events.
  • The $1,287 purchase was more than 14 times the detected 24-hour volume and helped accompany a sharp move toward No.
  • The trader is adding to an existing No position at 75¢, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 14.

$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp bettor makes oversized Yes bet

A highly profitable sharp bettor made a fresh, oversized Yes purchase in an extremely thin market, with multiple corroborating signals.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,461 resolved positions and is up $763,383 lifetime.
  • The $1,180 Yes purchase was over 13 times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, despite a wide spread and modest liquidity.
  • The wallet has traded across 51 events and 61 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off bet.

$1,180 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $34,153 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $32,722 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $8,085 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x71ab...f015 — Yes, $5,671 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $5,181 (46% win rate)
  6. 0x6ffa...b3c4 — Yes, $4,806
  7. 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $4,747 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $4,000 (71% win rate)
  9. 0xa0bc...d428 — Yes, $2,500 (55% win rate)
  10. 0xd426...334a — Yes, $2,355 (51% win rate)

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$4,177 tracked3 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

2026-08-10 03:20 UTC

$1,710 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

2026-08-09 03:53 UTC

$1,287 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?

2026-08-07 21:03 UTC

$1,180 on Yes at 59¢

Related Theses