Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $147,354.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Cross-market Yes buyer
High composite alert driven by a major cross-market Iran thesis and a 95.7x volume spike, despite this single trade being modest and the wallet’s overall record being weak.
- This wallet has built a much larger $310K position across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Market volume is running 95.7x above its historical average, showing unusual pre-deadline attention.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 45% over the week.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 15%
Sharp wallet buying NO
Surface despite the weak alert score because this wallet has a qualifying sharp track record: 83% wins on 12 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $1,722 lifetime.
- They are backing No at 83¢ on a high-volume politics market with No already gaining momentum.
- The wallet has been flagged 3 times before, suggesting a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
86% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L is buying No on a geopolitics market, with a second related event-market position adding context.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $940 on $6,694 invested.
- They bought No at 81¢, backing the market’s recent move away from a U.S.–Iran agreement.
- This is part of a $2.4K cross-market position in the same event.
$1,187 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable 5-market thesis
Surface: a profitable wallet is re-entering No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis, alongside a major volume spike and strong No momentum.
- This profitable bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $1.9k on $11.6k invested.
- They have built a $26k thesis across 5 related Iran markets, now re-entering No after a prior No position.
- Market flow supports the trade: volume is 11x normal and Yes has fallen 49% over the past week.
$2,598 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet is building a broader correlated position across five related Iran-ceasefire markets, making this more than a one-off bet despite modest size.
- This bettor is up $88.7K lifetime and is positioning across 5 related markets.
- They have put about $26K into the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Buying Yes at 20¢ goes against a market that has fallen 49% this week, implying they see rebound value.
$2,084 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a positive long-term record is re-entering No while also positioning across related Iran-event markets.
- This bettor has won 68% of 272 resolved trades and is up about $40.7K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets in this event, with $28.2K positioned in the same broader thesis.
- Buying No at 81¢ fits the market’s strong move away from Yes, which is down 12 points today.
$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes-equivalent position across a broader Iran ceasefire event cluster despite the market selling off sharply.
- This bettor has traded 441 resolved markets with a 69% win rate and $72K in lifetime profit.
- They have placed $37.6K across 7 related markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 21¢ after Yes fell 48% over the past week.
$5,449 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position as part of a broader 7-market Iran-event thesis, with current market momentum strongly favoring No.
- This bettor has won 69% of 441 resolved trades and is up $72K lifetime.
- They have built a $34.5K position across 7 related markets in the same event.
- Buying No at 80¢ follows strong momentum, with Yes down 15 points today and 53.5 points this week.
$2,401 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
82% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is expressing a Yes view via a No sell while actively trading across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $543K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.4M deployed across 146 related markets.
- Selling No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 25¢, against a market that has recently fallen sharply.
$1,730 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $4,056 lifetime.
- They are buying No at 77¢ as the market has moved sharply toward No over the past week.
- The market is highly liquid, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s proven track record rather than size.
$1,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Outcome 75368773, $2,400,000 (17% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Outcome 75368773, $25,994 (49% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 75368773, $24,405 (93% win rate)
- 0xb9d2...fb68 — Outcome 75368773, $24,146
- 0x557a...3d56 — Outcome 75368773, $21,922 (81% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Outcome 75368773, $21,723 (100% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 75368773, $15,901 (70% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 75368773, $10,002 (70% win rate)
- 0x48ee...008c — Outcome 75368773, $7,800 (38% win rate)
- 0x70bc...0c87 — Outcome 75368773, $7,782 (76% win rate)
