Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, peace deal, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement by the May 26 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $14,523 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this U.S.-Iran geopolitics market. The market resolves based on qualifying official U.S. announcements before the stated cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $243,470.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
82% winner buying Yes
Highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on an Iran agreement/ceasefire extension across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up over $702K lifetime.
- They have traded 62 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, below the current 12¢ market price.
$14,523 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Million-dollar cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a $23.5k No bet amid a major volume spike and related positioning across the event.
- This bettor has made $1.56M lifetime profit across 926 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.37M deployed across 92 markets in 55 events.
- This $23.5k No buy came during a 32x volume spike, suggesting the market is drawing informed attention.
$23,504 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a long positive record is adding a fresh No position on a politically sensitive Iran agreement market.
- This bettor has traded 44 related markets across 28 events and is up about $32.9K lifetime.
- They win 67% of resolved bets across 716 outcomes, suggesting a seasoned political-event trader.
- The fresh $2.55K buy on No at 85¢ lines up with a broader cross-market thesis against an announced extension.
$2,550 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
85% serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate is adding to a coordinated No thesis across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is slightly profitable across a very large $787k betting history.
- They have put $15.6k across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 84¢ matches the current market favorite but comes from a wallet with a strong cross-market track record.
$2,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a broader $24K thesis across three related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor is up $195K across 159 resolved markets, with a 58% win rate.
- They have traded 91 markets across 42 events, showing a repeat cross-market thesis strategy.
- This Yes buy at 16¢ is part of $24K positioned across three related markets.
$3,423 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
88% cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 88% of resolved trades and is up $6,910 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $330,774 deployed across 53 markets and 25 events.
- They have $15,223 positioned across 4 related markets, reinforcing the No thesis here.
$1,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader reopened a sizable No position on a geopolitical market, with a strong long-run record across many resolved bets.
- This bettor wins 67% of resolved trades and is up about $73k lifetime.
- They put $8.5k on No at 85¢ after previously closing a No position near 84¢.
- They have traded 50 markets across 27 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis.
$8,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
82% winner buying Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes at 16¢ while positioning across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $702k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 26 events, 62 markets, and $1.35M traded.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a low-cost bet on an announcement by the deadline.
$3,535 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering No on a geopolitics market with a strong historical pattern across 27 events, though the individual trade size is modest versus market volume.
- This bettor has won 67% of 251 resolved markets and is up $75.8k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $341.8k deployed across 50 related markets in 27 events.
- They previously put nearly $12k into No on this same market and are now buying No again at 85¢.
$2,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding a $4.15k No bet as part of a broader three-market Iran-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 62% of 856 resolved bets and is up $324.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, now putting $10.4k into 3 related markets.
- Buying No at 83¢ suggests confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement comes by the deadline.
$4,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0x921f...3d70 — Yes, $29,385
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $25,704 (79% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $21,400 (53% win rate)
- 0xb698...976a — Yes, $14,408
- 0xd15b...cf6d — Yes, $7,347
- 0x7c87...9bd4 — Yes, $6,611 (76% win rate)
- 0xd9c9...7e10 — Yes, $5,000 (48% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $4,711 (70% win rate)
- 0x40d5...79a5 — Yes, $4,194 (52% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Yes, $4,035 (42% win rate)
