Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, peace deal, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement by the May 26 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $14,523 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this U.S.-Iran geopolitics market. The market resolves based on qualifying official U.S. announcements before the stated cutoff.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $243,470.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
82% winner buying Yes
Highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on an Iran agreement/ceasefire extension across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up over $702K lifetime.
- They have traded 62 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, below the current 12¢ market price.
$14,523 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Million-dollar cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a $23.5k No bet amid a major volume spike and related positioning across the event.
- This bettor has made $1.56M lifetime profit across 926 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.37M deployed across 92 markets in 55 events.
- This $23.5k No buy came during a 32x volume spike, suggesting the market is drawing informed attention.
$23,504 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a long positive record is adding a fresh No position on a politically sensitive Iran agreement market.
- This bettor has traded 44 related markets across 28 events and is up about $32.9K lifetime.
- They win 67% of resolved bets across 716 outcomes, suggesting a seasoned political-event trader.
- The fresh $2.55K buy on No at 85¢ lines up with a broader cross-market thesis against an announced extension.
$2,550 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
85% serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate is adding to a coordinated No thesis across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is slightly profitable across a very large $787k betting history.
- They have put $15.6k across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 84¢ matches the current market favorite but comes from a wallet with a strong cross-market track record.
$2,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes as part of a broader $24K thesis across three related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor is up $195K across 159 resolved markets, with a 58% win rate.
- They have traded 91 markets across 42 events, showing a repeat cross-market thesis strategy.
- This Yes buy at 16¢ is part of $24K positioned across three related markets.
$3,423 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
88% cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 88% of resolved trades and is up $6,910 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $330,774 deployed across 53 markets and 25 events.
- They have $15,223 positioned across 4 related markets, reinforcing the No thesis here.
$1,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader reopened a sizable No position on a geopolitical market, with a strong long-run record across many resolved bets.
- This bettor wins 67% of resolved trades and is up about $73k lifetime.
- They put $8.5k on No at 85¢ after previously closing a No position near 84¢.
- They have traded 50 markets across 27 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis.
$8,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
82% winner buying Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes at 16¢ while positioning across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $702k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 26 events, 62 markets, and $1.35M traded.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a low-cost bet on an announcement by the deadline.
$3,535 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering No on a geopolitics market with a strong historical pattern across 27 events, though the individual trade size is modest versus market volume.
- This bettor has won 67% of 251 resolved markets and is up $75.8k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $341.8k deployed across 50 related markets in 27 events.
- They previously put nearly $12k into No on this same market and are now buying No again at 85¢.
$2,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding a $4.15k No bet as part of a broader three-market Iran-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 62% of 856 resolved bets and is up $324.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, now putting $10.4k into 3 related markets.
- Buying No at 83¢ suggests confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement comes by the deadline.
$4,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0x921f...3d70 — Outcome 10880719, $29,385
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 10880719, $25,704 (80% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 10880719, $21,400 (58% win rate)
- 0xb698...976a — Outcome 10880719, $14,408
- 0xd15b...cf6d — Outcome 10880719, $7,347
- 0x7c87...9bd4 — Outcome 10880719, $6,611 (76% win rate)
- 0xd9c9...7e10 — Outcome 10880719, $5,000 (48% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 10880719, $4,711 (70% win rate)
- 0x40d5...79a5 — Outcome 10880719, $4,194 (52% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 10880719, $4,035 (42% win rate)
