Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $194,002.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
New whale scaling into No
A brand-new wallet repeatedly committed over $40,000 to No across related markets during a 246x volume spike, signaling unusually strong event-driven conviction despite the position now trading at 100%.
- A wallet just over an hour old committed more than $40,000 to No, including a $12,700 purchase, across six flagged bets.
- The trades arrived during a 246x historical volume spike and spanned three related markets, suggesting a coordinated event-driven thesis.
- The wallet bought No from 75¢ to 90¢, and the market has since moved to an apparent 100%.
$22,740 on No
No position caught a major repricing
A large No purchase coincided with an extreme volume spike and major repricing, though the trader's historical record is only moderately strong and the position was already being accumulated.
- A $1,520 No purchase preceded a sharp move from 76¢ to about 93¢.
- Trading volume spiked to 460 times its historical average, while No broke well beyond its prior 13¢–32¢ range.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No position, but its 64% win rate is not strong enough to qualify as a proven sharp bettor.
$1,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Seven-wallet No conviction cluster
Seven linked wallets, a 460x volume spike, and an extreme move toward No indicate coordinated high-conviction positioning despite the lead wallet having only a moderate 66% win rate.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are positioned on the same market, with $10,834 in linked activity.
- Volume surged to 460 times its historical average while No moved sharply beyond its prior 13–32% range.
- The lead bettor has won 66% of 191 resolved trades and is adding to an existing No position across related markets.
$4,444 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seasoned trader reverses into Yes
A high-volume pre-event spike and a seasoned cross-market trader reversing into Yes make this a worthwhile directional signal despite limited edge from the wallet’s historical record.
- Trading surged to 174 times the historical average, suggesting unusually strong attention before the event.
- This wallet has traded across 71 events and $1.19 million, then shifted from a prior No position into Yes at 85¢.
- The market has risen 11% over the past week, reinforcing the recent move toward Yes.
$2,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Seasoned trader reverses into Yes
A high-volume pre-event spike and a seasoned cross-market trader reversing into Yes make this a worthwhile directional signal despite limited edge from the wallet’s historical record.
- Trading surged to 174 times the historical average, suggesting unusually strong attention before the event.
- This wallet has traded across 71 events and $1.19 million, then shifted from a prior No position into Yes at 85¢.
- The market has risen 11% over the past week, reinforcing the recent move toward Yes.
$2,580 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Five-wallet coordinated Yes exit
Five wallets sold $65.6K of Yes in a 174x volume spike, including experienced cross-market traders, though prior Yes holdings suggest some of the flow may be profit-taking.
- Five wallets sold $65,640 of Yes, creating a 174x surge over the market’s historical trading volume.
- The group includes experienced traders with 67% and 87% win rates across hundreds of resolved markets.
- Several wallets previously held Yes positions, so this looks partly like coordinated position reduction rather than a purely fresh No bet.
$65,640 on No
Serial trader adds large Yes bet
A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.
- This trader has placed bets across 246 markets and 136 events, with 548 resolved positions and $216,000 in lifetime profit.
- The $8,980 purchase was nearly 570% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
- The wallet is adding to an existing $13,593 Yes position, with entry at 72¢ versus current market odds near 78¢.
$3,888 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Seasoned trader reverses into Yes
A high-volume pre-event spike and a seasoned cross-market trader reversing into Yes make this a worthwhile directional signal despite limited edge from the wallet’s historical record.
- Trading surged to 174 times the historical average, suggesting unusually strong attention before the event.
- This wallet has traded across 71 events and $1.19 million, then shifted from a prior No position into Yes at 85¢.
- The market has risen 11% over the past week, reinforcing the recent move toward Yes.
$1,410 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial trader scales into Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader added roughly $54,000 to an existing Yes position, signaling substantial conviction despite the market already trading near 90%.
- This bettor has won 87% of 224 resolved trades and has traded 152 markets across 92 events.
- The wallet bought about $54,000 of Yes while already holding a $55,556 position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes has risen 20 percentage points over the past week, broadly confirming the trader’s direction.
$54,437 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
7-wallet funded cluster
A seven-wallet funded cluster has deployed over $10,000 alongside a serial cross-market trader buying Yes at 83%, making this a notable coordinated geopolitical position despite only moderate historical accuracy.
- Seven linked wallets share a funder and have deployed $10,769 on this market.
- The trader has placed over $1.8 million across 48 events, providing meaningful market experience.
- Yes was bought at 83%, near the current ask, with the position favoring continued ceasefire through September 15.
$4,169 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Related Theses
Iran deal in early June
Covers 9 related markets
Ceasefire holds through September 15
Covers 2 related markets
No Iran peace deal in 2026
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
