What counts as a Yes outcome in this US-Iran nuclear deal market?

The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual official agreement related to Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Does the nuclear deal need to take effect before April 30, 2026?

No. If an official agreement is publicly reached before the deadline, the market resolves to Yes even if the agreement goes into effect later.

What happens if there are talks or negotiations but no announced agreement?

If there are negotiations, indirect talks, or reports of progress but no publicly announced mutual agreement by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Why are traders following this Polymarket closely?

This market reflects expectations around US-Iran diplomacy, sanctions policy, regional security, and broader Middle East tensions. It can move on headlines about negotiations, mediation efforts, and official statements from Washington and Tehran.

When does the US-Iran nuclear deal prediction market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether a qualifying agreement is announced by April 30, 2026, with the listed resolution date of April 30, 2026.

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly reach an official agreement covering Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by April 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes if a mutual agreement is publicly announced before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves No. Traders watching US-Iran tensions, diplomacy, and Middle East geopolitics use this market to gauge the current odds of a nuclear deal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,460.

Categories: Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Israel, World

Notable Trades

15-wallet sharp cluster

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought Yes in a politically sensitive market with strong recent momentum, making this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.

This wallet wins 69% of resolved bets and is up $278k across 353 settled trades.
It belongs to a 15-wallet funded cluster, which often signals one actor spreading a thesis across accounts.
Bought Yes at 28¢ while this market is up 26.4% this week, suggesting momentum behind a political event trade.

$1,460 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%