US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
This Polymarket asks whether the US government or military will officially confirm that it has obtained physical possession of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if the US has actual custody or control of the material, not merely a deal, plan, or agreement to transfer it. Recent smart money activity highlighted a profitable macro trader pressing No, with $15,985 in tracked smart money on the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $15,985.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable macro trader presses No
A highly active profitable trader with 887 resolved bets and $1.37M P&L made a nearly $16k No bet that represented almost all of this market’s 24h volume.
- This bettor has won 64% of 887 resolved trades and is up $1.37M lifetime.
- Their $16.0k buy made up 96% of this market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction.
- They trade heavily across related events and bought No at 63¢, below the current 68¢ market price.
$15,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $25,445 (64% win rate)
- 0x3ac4...0e8b — Yes, $13,500
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $5,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $3,090 (50% win rate)
- 0x6385...2afa — Yes, $2,930
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $2,000 (47% win rate)
- 0xff7c...b233 — No, $1,847 (47% win rate)
- 0x2ce3...966b — Yes, $1,800
- 0xc021...1fa8 — No, $1,500 (52% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — Yes, $1,000 (77% win rate)
