Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether the US government or military will officially confirm possession or control of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if the US has actual physical custody or control; announcements of agreements or plans alone do not qualify. Smart money tracked on this market totals $34,280 across one signal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
38 smart money signals detected, totaling $280,411.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$34,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$17,963 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$12,240 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$18,922 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$22,346 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
97% winner buys No
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a 97% resolved-bet record and is making a $10.5k No bet equal to 82% of daily volume.
- This bettor has won 28 of 29 resolved bets and is up about $63.9k lifetime.
- They put $10.5k on No, a size equal to 82% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Buying No at 83¢ signals confidence the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the deadline.
$10,530 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
82% winner buying YES
Surfaced because this is a proven 82% winner with strong cross-market history converting a No sale into a Yes position on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $71.8K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 29 events with $206K tracked in similar positioning.
- Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, matching the current market ask.
$2,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven cross-market bettor
Experienced positive-P&L wallet with a 76% resolved win rate is re-entering No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $24.7K lifetime.
- They have placed about $36K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This is a fresh re-entry on No after previously closing a larger No position.
$2,224 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable whale buying NO
A very profitable high-volume wallet is buying $8.6k of No while also positioning across related Iran markets, though the signal is moderate rather than urgent.
- This bettor is up about $1.48M lifetime across over 1,200 resolved markets.
- They bought $8.6K of No at 82¢, a large trade relative to recent activity in this market.
- The same wallet has put about $21.6K across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$8,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable whale's Iran thesis
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a $30k cross-market Iran thesis, including a fresh $9k buy on No here.
- This wallet is up $476k lifetime and has traded over $57M on Polymarket.
- They have put $30k across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $9k buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.
$9,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $187,340 (69% win rate)
- 0x4755...4158 — No, $66,571 (98% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $64,339 (64% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $60,777 (56% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $49,804 (71% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — Yes, $40,471 (40% win rate)
- 0x2202...8787 — No, $37,897 (100% win rate)
- 0x5bec...03e8 — Yes, $30,000
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $29,892 (58% win rate)
- 0x8b71...8044 — No, $26,754 (90% win rate)
