Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether the US government or military will officially confirm it has gained physical possession of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $7,536 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this geopolitics market, including alerts tied to profitable cross-market and serial geopolitics bettors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
26 smart money signals detected, totaling $138,590.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable Iran thesis bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying $7.5k of No here and $20.6k across related markets.
- This bettor is up $1.35M lifetime across 1,231 resolved trades.
- They have put $20.6k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k No buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume of $5.9k.
$7,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
$1.35M-profit cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is adding a $9.8k No bet as part of a broader cross-market position on the same geopolitical event.
- This bettor has made $1.35M lifetime across 1,230 resolved bets.
- They bought $9.8k of No at 79¢, a meaningful position on a geopolitical market.
- They have $22.8k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$9,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable wallet is adding to a broader $25k cross-market Iran uranium thesis by buying No, aligned with recent market momentum.
- This experienced bettor is up about $369k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have placed $25k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The trade buys No at 79¢ while Yes has fallen 7 points over the past week.
$3,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Borderline but worth surfacing because a highly experienced, lifetime-profitable wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis with $25K across three related markets.
- This experienced bettor is up $370K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They have put $25K across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade buys No at 78¢, aligning with the market’s current view that US possession is unlikely.
$4,007 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Proven cross-market trader
A proven cross-market trader with 365 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L is reducing No exposure, effectively leaning Yes, across related Iran-uranium markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $227K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 86 events with $7.3M traded.
- Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 23¢, against a market currently near 22%.
$2,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A large profitable wallet is effectively buying Yes with a $12.9k trade as part of a broader $34k cross-market Iran-related thesis, though its edge is moderate rather than elite.
- This bettor is up $371k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 22¢, suggesting they see upside in a low-probability geopolitical outcome.
- They have $34k positioned across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$12,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is making a $6.9k effective BUY Yes bet on a geopolitical market with plausible information edge.
- This bettor has traded over 1,000 resolved markets and is up $146k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 199 events, suggesting a repeatable research-driven strategy.
- Selling No at 77¢ equals buying Yes at 23¢, a position that pays about 4.3x if the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium.
$6,882 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market thesis on related Iran/US uranium markets, with this SELL No converting to a BUY Yes at 22¢.
- This high-volume bettor is up $420K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They have placed $34K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 78¢ converts to buying Yes at 22¢, a roughly 4.5x payout if it resolves correctly.
$2,340 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes amid a major volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor has won 64% of 926 resolved trades and is up $1.56M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.4M deployed across 55 events and 92 markets.
- Market activity spiked 379x versus normal volume, suggesting fresh positioning around this thesis.
$8,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial geopolitics bettor
High composite alert driven by a serial cross-market bettor with a strong resolved-bet record plus a major volume spike, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative so conviction is moderate rather than top-tier.
- This wallet has traded across 35 events and has won 93% of its resolved bets.
- The market saw a 379x volume spike versus its historical average, suggesting fresh attention on this thesis.
- The bettor is re-entering No at 81¢ after previously holding a No position around 74¢.
$2,682 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $96,927 (69% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $53,762 (54% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $47,681 (64% win rate)
- 0xc021...1fa8 — No, $43,996 (53% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — Yes, $32,656 (40% win rate)
- 0x095d...52cf — No, $25,623
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $21,997 (63% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $21,500 (70% win rate)
- 0x8b71...8044 — No, $20,595 (89% win rate)
- 0x8597...daee — No, $18,119 (81% win rate)
