Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $89,341.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Winning bettor reloads No
A profitable bettor with an 80% win rate reopened a much larger No position after a sharp move in a major geopolitics market, signaling renewed conviction rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $7.6k overall.
- They just bought $7k of No after the market jumped about 22 points in under 3 minutes.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing a smaller No position earlier, which points to renewed conviction at 78¢.
$7,014 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Proven cross-market contrarian
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record is making a fresh contrarian buy into Yes after a sharp selloff, which is notable even though the stake is modest for this market.
- This bettor has a strong record: 67% win rate across 1,288 resolved bets and $223k profit.
- They effectively bought Yes at 25¢ by selling No after the market dropped 16.5 points in under 3 minutes.
- This is a fresh position after previously closing an older Yes bet, suggesting renewed conviction at a much cheaper price.
$2,143 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable thesis trader flips No
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets just flipped into No after a sharp 36-point daily drop, making this a fresh directional position worth noting despite the modest size.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,017 resolved trades and is up $222,650 lifetime
- They opened a fresh No position at 76¢ after closing an earlier Yes bet, showing a clear thesis change
- The market fell 36 points in a day, and this buy joined that momentum in a liquid geopolitical market
$1,759 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
93% win-rate macro bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 93% win rate sold Yes in a politically sensitive market as part of a broader 5-market event thesis, making the equivalent Buy No worth surfacing despite the market’s deep liquidity.
- This bettor wins 93% of their resolved trades with 810 settled positions and is up $52k lifetime.
- They took a nearly $5k stance against Yes in a US-Iran diplomacy market and have been active across 5 related markets in the same event.
- The trade helped drive a fast 40-point move, and buying No around 68¢ matches their entry view.
$4,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
88% winner buying the dip
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate bought into a sharp 40-point selloff across related US-Iran markets, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They bought Yes at 26¢ right after a 40-point drop in about 4 minutes
- They have also traded 3 related markets in this event, pointing to a broader thesis
$2,714 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
86% win-rate macro trader
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate sold Yes into a fast 40-point drop, which translates into a sharp buy of No around 77¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $390k across 187 settled bets.
- They trade across 59 related markets in 32 events, which points to a repeatable macro-news edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 23¢ is equivalent to buying No at 77¢ after a rapid 40-point move, showing conviction even in a liquid market.
$1,152 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market trader
A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate is expressing a broader cross-market thesis here, but this specific trade is a sell/exit rather than a clean new position.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $238k lifetime
- They have placed nearly $11.8k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This trade helped push price sharply lower, but their prior closed positions here make it less clearly a fresh conviction entry
$1,481 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable macro trader flips NO
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader sold Yes into a sharp 40-point downward move, which translates to a copyable BUY No around 49¢.
- This wallet has a long track record: 511 wins on 880 resolved bets and about $482k profit
- They sold Yes at 51¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 49¢, during a fast 40-point price drop in about 4 minutes
- This trader has bet across 190 related markets and 97 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge
$1,819 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
74% winner buying the dip
A high-volume, proven 74% win-rate trader reopened a fresh Yes position right after a sharp 40-point drop, making this a notable contrarian entry worth watching.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up $236k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 50¢ right after the market dropped about 40 points in 4 minutes.
- This wallet trades across many related events with a strong track record: 70 events, 108 markets, 74% win rate.
$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp cross-market dip buyer
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 74% win rate reopened a fresh Yes position after a sharp 40-point drop, suggesting a deliberate buy-the-dip thesis on a serious geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up about $236k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 52¢ right after a 40-point price drop in about 4 minutes, signaling conviction into panic selling.
- They trade heavily across related events and markets, with more than $5.3M tracked and a long repeat pattern.
$2,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x1d16...e798 — Outcome 10825770, $61,423 (8% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 10825770, $55,556 (18% win rate)
- 0x7dc1...d84d — Outcome 10825770, $26,692
- 0x196d...dc4f — Outcome 10825770, $15,888
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10825770, $13,982 (69% win rate)
- 0x0303...46ec — Outcome 10825770, $7,000
- 0x9af4...0597 — Outcome 10825770, $6,959 (33% win rate)
- 0xf4a5...4dd9 — Outcome 10825770, $5,700 (66% win rate)
- 0x62f8...2928 — Outcome 10825770, $4,815 (34% win rate)
- 0xb302...92f3 — Outcome 10825770, $4,430
Related Theses
Early Iran peace deal
Covers 7 related markets
