US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if an authorized, official meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Recent smart money activity has turned more bearish, with a recent alert noting a 74% winner flipped bearish.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,967.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
74% winner flips bearish
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is flipping bearish on this geopolitics market by selling Yes at 41¢, effectively buying No at 59¢ after a sharp 1-day collapse.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up about $225k overall
- The trade was a sell of Yes at 41¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 59¢
- The market already dropped 34 points in a day, and this bettor trades across 104 related markets with size
$1,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x7494...680d — Yes, $10,562 (93% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $8,875 (73% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $5,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $4,471 (62% win rate)
- 0x8db5...fa3e — No, $3,828
- 0xd46b...5dab — Yes, $3,800 (52% win rate)
- 0x5a40...4093 — Yes, $3,722 (51% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $3,105 (35% win rate)
- 0x7fa3...86e8 — Yes, $3,083
- 0x4377...cd61 — Yes, $2,904
