Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

25 smart money signals detected, totaling $89,341.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Winning bettor reloads No

A profitable bettor with an 80% win rate reopened a much larger No position after a sharp move in a major geopolitics market, signaling renewed conviction rather than routine flow.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $7.6k overall.
  • They just bought $7k of No after the market jumped about 22 points in under 3 minutes.
  • This is a fresh re-entry after closing a smaller No position earlier, which points to renewed conviction at 78¢.

$7,014 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven cross-market contrarian

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record is making a fresh contrarian buy into Yes after a sharp selloff, which is notable even though the stake is modest for this market.

  • This bettor has a strong record: 67% win rate across 1,288 resolved bets and $223k profit.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 25¢ by selling No after the market dropped 16.5 points in under 3 minutes.
  • This is a fresh position after previously closing an older Yes bet, suggesting renewed conviction at a much cheaper price.

$2,143 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable thesis trader flips No

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets just flipped into No after a sharp 36-point daily drop, making this a fresh directional position worth noting despite the modest size.

  • This bettor has won 66% of 1,017 resolved trades and is up $222,650 lifetime
  • They opened a fresh No position at 76¢ after closing an earlier Yes bet, showing a clear thesis change
  • The market fell 36 points in a day, and this buy joined that momentum in a liquid geopolitical market

$1,759 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

93% win-rate macro bettor

A proven sharp wallet with a 93% win rate sold Yes in a politically sensitive market as part of a broader 5-market event thesis, making the equivalent Buy No worth surfacing despite the market’s deep liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their resolved trades with 810 settled positions and is up $52k lifetime.
  • They took a nearly $5k stance against Yes in a US-Iran diplomacy market and have been active across 5 related markets in the same event.
  • The trade helped drive a fast 40-point move, and buying No around 68¢ matches their entry view.

$4,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

88% winner buying the dip

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate bought into a sharp 40-point selloff across related US-Iran markets, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than routine flow.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
  • They bought Yes at 26¢ right after a 40-point drop in about 4 minutes
  • They have also traded 3 related markets in this event, pointing to a broader thesis

$2,714 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

86% win-rate macro trader

A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate sold Yes into a fast 40-point drop, which translates into a sharp buy of No around 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $390k across 187 settled bets.
  • They trade across 59 related markets in 32 events, which points to a repeatable macro-news edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling Yes at 23¢ is equivalent to buying No at 77¢ after a rapid 40-point move, showing conviction even in a liquid market.

$1,152 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cross-market trader

A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate is expressing a broader cross-market thesis here, but this specific trade is a sell/exit rather than a clean new position.

  • This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $238k lifetime
  • They have placed nearly $11.8k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • This trade helped push price sharply lower, but their prior closed positions here make it less clearly a fresh conviction entry

$1,481 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable macro trader flips NO

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader sold Yes into a sharp 40-point downward move, which translates to a copyable BUY No around 49¢.

  • This wallet has a long track record: 511 wins on 880 resolved bets and about $482k profit
  • They sold Yes at 51¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 49¢, during a fast 40-point price drop in about 4 minutes
  • This trader has bet across 190 related markets and 97 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge

$1,819 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

74% winner buying the dip

A high-volume, proven 74% win-rate trader reopened a fresh Yes position right after a sharp 40-point drop, making this a notable contrarian entry worth watching.

  • This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up $236k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 50¢ right after the market dropped about 40 points in 4 minutes.
  • This wallet trades across many related events with a strong track record: 70 events, 108 markets, 74% win rate.

$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp cross-market dip buyer

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 74% win rate reopened a fresh Yes position after a sharp 40-point drop, suggesting a deliberate buy-the-dip thesis on a serious geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up about $236k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 52¢ right after a 40-point price drop in about 4 minutes, signaling conviction into panic selling.
  • They trade heavily across related events and markets, with more than $5.3M tracked and a long repeat pattern.

$2,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1d16...e798 Outcome 10825770, $61,423 (8% win rate)
  2. 0xd519...932c Outcome 10825770, $55,556 (18% win rate)
  3. 0x7dc1...d84d Outcome 10825770, $26,692
  4. 0x196d...dc4f Outcome 10825770, $15,888
  5. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 10825770, $13,982 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x0303...46ec Outcome 10825770, $7,000
  7. 0x9af4...0597 Outcome 10825770, $6,959 (33% win rate)
  8. 0xf4a5...4dd9 Outcome 10825770, $5,700 (66% win rate)
  9. 0x62f8...2928 Outcome 10825770, $4,815 (34% win rate)
  10. 0xb302...92f3 Outcome 10825770, $4,430

Related Theses

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Early Iran peace deal

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Covers 11 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$89,341 tracked25 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$7,014 on No at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$2,143 on Yes at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$1,759 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$4,968 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$2,714 on Yes at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

43d ago

$1,152 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,481 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,819 on No at 49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,850 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$2,095 on Yes at 52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,728 on No at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$2,256 on Yes at 54¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,570 on Yes at 46¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,008 on Yes at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$3,340 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$18,071 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$13,622 on Yes at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$2,963 on No at 49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,477 on No at 49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$2,046 on Yes at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$1,319 on Yes at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$2,299 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

44d ago

$7,181 on No at 49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

45d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

45d ago

$1,967 on No at 59¢

Related Theses