Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,682.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is buying into a broader cross-market geopolitical thesis after a sharp price collapse, making this a follow-worthy directional bet despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime.
- They have been building views across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 14¢ after the market fell about 68% in a day, implying they see the odds as too low.
$1,615 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
93% win-rate thesis trader
A very high-performing wallet with a 93% win rate is part of coordinated one-sided flow betting against a US-Iran meeting across related markets, and this trade can be copied by buying No around 71¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 810 markets and is up over $43k lifetime
- They joined 4 wallets all leaning the same way, with a 31-point drop in Yes and heavy volume across this event
- This trade was a sell of Yes at 29¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 71¢ on a broad geopolitical market
$1,054 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
3-wallet dip-buy cluster
Three wallets simultaneously flipped into Yes after a roughly 60-point collapse, creating coordinated bullish flow at 22-25¢ on a high-attention geopolitics market.
- Three wallets all moved into Yes within minutes, putting $8.8k behind the same view.
- They bought at 22-25¢ after the market fell about 60 points in a day, suggesting a coordinated dip-buy thesis.
- This is a geopolitics market with nearly $861k of 24h volume, so the flow is more notable than a random thin-market punt.
$8,790 on Yes
74% win-rate event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position across this event, which is notable even in a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 236 of 318 resolved markets and is up about $230k lifetime.
- They have traded 109 markets across 70 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-wide positioning.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 60¢ after this market fell 16 points over the past week, showing renewed conviction after a pullback.
$2,912 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
19-wallet thesis cluster
A large linked-wallet cluster with a strong history across 83 events is rotating into No together at 47-52¢ on a politically relevant market, signaling coordinated conviction rather than random flow.
- Three linked wallets from a 19-wallet funding cluster all bought No together for $8.0k, showing coordinated conviction.
- One of the wallets has a 71% win rate over 379 resolved bets and this cluster has traded 152 related markets across 83 events.
- They entered No at 47-52¢ while No now sits at 42¢, so the trade is already moving in their favor.
$8,025 on No
82% win-rate thesis bettor
A very proven wallet with an 82% win rate and over $600k profit is adding a fresh cross-market thesis by buying Yes after a sharp 16-point pullback.
- This bettor wins 82% of their trades and is up about $607k across 825 resolved bets
- They are betting across multiple related Iran markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 57¢ after this market fell 16 points in a week, implying they see the dip as mispriced
$1,842 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
93% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly proven wallet with a 93% win rate is buying into a fast-rising geopolitics market, and its six-market event positioning suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 810 resolved positions and is up $50k lifetime
- They are betting across 6 related markets in the same event, which points to a deliberate thesis rather than a random trade
- Bought Yes at 80¢ while this market is up 16.5 points in a day, reinforcing the move with proven flow
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Proven geopolitical cross-market bettor
A proven cross-market trader with 155 resolved bets and a 71% win rate added nearly $4.9k to a fast-rising geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite only one signal.
- This bettor has won 110 of 155 resolved trades and is up about $67.9k overall
- They trade across 88 events and 125 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 85¢ while this market jumped 32 points in a day, reinforcing the current momentum
$4,880 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
93% win-rate thesis trader
A proven sharp wallet with a 93% win rate is building a cross-market thesis across 6 related markets, making this buy worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 810 bets and is up $52k lifetime
- They have put $13.5k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader event-driven view rather than a one-off punt
- They bought Yes at 85¢ even after a sharp move, showing conviction that the market should be even higher
$2,498 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
4-wallet No cluster
Four profitable cross-market traders sold Yes together into a 12x volume spike, which translates into a coordinated buy on No around 23-28¢ in a major geopolitics market.
- Four wallets all bet the same way within minutes, putting $13.4k behind No in a geopolitics market.
- One wallet wins 74% of 317 resolved bets, and the group includes several traders with long profitable histories.
- They sold Yes around 72-78¢ during a 12.2x volume spike, which maps to buying No around 22-28¢ while the market was jumping higher.
$13,414 on No
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 50740610, $68,448 (69% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 50740610, $46,626 (68% win rate)
- 0x5835...9404 — Outcome 50740610, $10,501
- 0x7dc1...d84d — Outcome 50740610, $8,890
- 0x1851...ae47 — Outcome 50740610, $6,000
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 50740610, $3,913 (69% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 50740610, $3,900 (41% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Outcome 50740610, $3,708 (54% win rate)
- 0x9360...03e6 — Outcome 50740610, $2,700
- 0xb935...204b — Outcome 50740610, $2,155 (10% win rate)
Related Theses
Early Iran peace deal
Covers 7 related markets
