US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, official meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders watch this market as a real-time signal of geopolitical tensions, diplomacy, and the odds of a US-Iran breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,026.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

86% win-rate macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate re-entered this geopolitical market at 78¢ before it moved to 88%, making the alert worth surfacing despite only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 989 markets and has traded over $1.09M across 133 events
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ and the market is now 88¢, so the position moved 10 points in their favor quickly
  • This is a re-entry by a proven event trader in a news-driven geopolitics market, not a random one-off bet

$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $22,805 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $9,492 (62% win rate)
  3. 0xbe8c...9e9e No, $8,207 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x6e4b...3c6d No, $5,700
  5. 0x77c8...bc8c No, $5,530 (29% win rate)
  6. 0x24c8...23e1 No, $4,337 (40% win rate)
  7. 0x2aac...a718 Yes, $4,000 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x2525...b919 No, $3,181 (55% win rate)
  9. 0xe617...f251 Yes, $2,906 (95% win rate)
  10. 0xfc04...4f75 Yes, $2,361

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

15d$1,026 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
81¢
No
20¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
84¢
69¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

4h ago

$1,026 on Yes at 78¢

78¢81¢3¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter