Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,682.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

88% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is buying into a broader cross-market geopolitical thesis after a sharp price collapse, making this a follow-worthy directional bet despite modest size.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime.
  • They have been building views across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 14¢ after the market fell about 68% in a day, implying they see the odds as too low.

$1,615 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

93% win-rate thesis trader

A very high-performing wallet with a 93% win rate is part of coordinated one-sided flow betting against a US-Iran meeting across related markets, and this trade can be copied by buying No around 71¢.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 810 markets and is up over $43k lifetime
  • They joined 4 wallets all leaning the same way, with a 31-point drop in Yes and heavy volume across this event
  • This trade was a sell of Yes at 29¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 71¢ on a broad geopolitical market

$1,054 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

3-wallet dip-buy cluster

Three wallets simultaneously flipped into Yes after a roughly 60-point collapse, creating coordinated bullish flow at 22-25¢ on a high-attention geopolitics market.

  • Three wallets all moved into Yes within minutes, putting $8.8k behind the same view.
  • They bought at 22-25¢ after the market fell about 60 points in a day, suggesting a coordinated dip-buy thesis.
  • This is a geopolitics market with nearly $861k of 24h volume, so the flow is more notable than a random thin-market punt.

$8,790 on Yes

74% win-rate event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position across this event, which is notable even in a liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 236 of 318 resolved markets and is up about $230k lifetime.
  • They have traded 109 markets across 70 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-wide positioning.
  • This is a fresh Yes buy at 60¢ after this market fell 16 points over the past week, showing renewed conviction after a pullback.

$2,912 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

19-wallet thesis cluster

A large linked-wallet cluster with a strong history across 83 events is rotating into No together at 47-52¢ on a politically relevant market, signaling coordinated conviction rather than random flow.

  • Three linked wallets from a 19-wallet funding cluster all bought No together for $8.0k, showing coordinated conviction.
  • One of the wallets has a 71% win rate over 379 resolved bets and this cluster has traded 152 related markets across 83 events.
  • They entered No at 47-52¢ while No now sits at 42¢, so the trade is already moving in their favor.

$8,025 on No

82% win-rate thesis bettor

A very proven wallet with an 82% win rate and over $600k profit is adding a fresh cross-market thesis by buying Yes after a sharp 16-point pullback.

  • This bettor wins 82% of their trades and is up about $607k across 825 resolved bets
  • They are betting across multiple related Iran markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Yes at 57¢ after this market fell 16 points in a week, implying they see the dip as mispriced

$1,842 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

93% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly proven wallet with a 93% win rate is buying into a fast-rising geopolitics market, and its six-market event positioning suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 810 resolved positions and is up $50k lifetime
  • They are betting across 6 related markets in the same event, which points to a deliberate thesis rather than a random trade
  • Bought Yes at 80¢ while this market is up 16.5 points in a day, reinforcing the move with proven flow

$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Proven geopolitical cross-market bettor

A proven cross-market trader with 155 resolved bets and a 71% win rate added nearly $4.9k to a fast-rising geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite only one signal.

  • This bettor has won 110 of 155 resolved trades and is up about $67.9k overall
  • They trade across 88 events and 125 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 85¢ while this market jumped 32 points in a day, reinforcing the current momentum

$4,880 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

93% win-rate thesis trader

A proven sharp wallet with a 93% win rate is building a cross-market thesis across 6 related markets, making this buy worth following despite the modest single-trade size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 810 bets and is up $52k lifetime
  • They have put $13.5k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader event-driven view rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought Yes at 85¢ even after a sharp move, showing conviction that the market should be even higher

$2,498 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

4-wallet No cluster

Four profitable cross-market traders sold Yes together into a 12x volume spike, which translates into a coordinated buy on No around 23-28¢ in a major geopolitics market.

  • Four wallets all bet the same way within minutes, putting $13.4k behind No in a geopolitics market.
  • One wallet wins 74% of 317 resolved bets, and the group includes several traders with long profitable histories.
  • They sold Yes around 72-78¢ during a 12.2x volume spike, which maps to buying No around 22-28¢ while the market was jumping higher.

$13,414 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 50740610, $68,448 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 50740610, $46,626 (68% win rate)
  3. 0x5835...9404 Outcome 50740610, $10,501
  4. 0x7dc1...d84d Outcome 50740610, $8,890
  5. 0x1851...ae47 Outcome 50740610, $6,000
  6. 0xbb8e...b243 Outcome 50740610, $3,913 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a Outcome 50740610, $3,900 (41% win rate)
  8. 0xcf60...47ce Outcome 50740610, $3,708 (54% win rate)
  9. 0x9360...03e6 Outcome 50740610, $2,700
  10. 0xb935...204b Outcome 50740610, $2,155 (10% win rate)

Related Theses

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Early Iran peace deal

Covers 7 related markets

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$67,682 tracked19 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$1,615 on Yes at 14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$1,054 on No at 71¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$8,790 on Yes at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$2,912 on Yes at 60¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$8,025 on No at 52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$1,842 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$2,500 on Yes at 80¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$4,880 on Yes at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$2,498 on Yes at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$13,414 on No at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

40d ago

$1,793 on Yes at 80¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

40d ago

$1,123 on Yes at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

40d ago

$1,575 on Yes at 79¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

40d ago

$1,564 on No at 39¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

42d ago

$1,364 on No at 35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

43d ago

$2,400 on Yes at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

43d ago

$1,749 on No at 35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

39d ago

$7,558 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

46d ago

$1,026 on Yes at 78¢

Related Theses