Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,162.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
87% win-rate event trader
Profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is building a repeated cross-market thesis on this event, making this small pullback entry worth watching despite the market being liquid.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $127.6k overall.
- They've put $68.8k across 5 related markets in the same event, which points to a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 37¢ and the market now sits at 32¢, offering a cheaper follow entry if that thesis is right.
$1,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% win-rate event bettor
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is building a broader US-Iran event thesis across 5 related markets with meaningful size, which makes this worth surfacing despite mixed entry prices on this market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
- They placed $47k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a coordinated event thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes as low as 37¢, close to the current 40¢ price, giving a reasonable copy level.
$6,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
74% win-rate event trader
A profitable serial event trader with a 74% win rate is taking a cross-market thesis on US-Iran, buying No at 44¢ while this event complex is seeing heavy activity and a sharp price move.
- This bettor has won 239 of 324 resolved trades and is up $215k lifetime
- They have traded 113 markets across 73 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 44¢ while this market has surged 49.5 points in a day, signaling a clear contrarian view within a fast-moving event
$3,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
87% win-rate event trader
Profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is building a broader 5-market thesis around this event, making this a credible cross-market signal despite the modest single trade size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k overall
- They have put $62.5k across 5 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought Yes around 68¢ in a fast-moving politics market that jumped 56 points in a day
$3,406 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% win-rate event bettor
Profitable cross-market trader with an 87% win rate is building a fresh $8.9k Yes position across this Iran diplomacy event while the market is moving hard higher.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k overall
- They put $68k across 5 related markets in this same event, showing a clear thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes between 63¢ and 68¢ while the market jumped nearly 60 points in a day
$8,896 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner, event thesis
Profitable high-hit-rate wallet is building a repeated cross-market thesis on the same event, putting $5.5k into Yes even after a sharp repricing.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $127.6k lifetime.
- They have put $64.6k across 5 related markets in this same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 63-67¢ after this market jumped 53 points in a day, signaling conviction even after the move.
$5,491 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner pressing thesis
Profitable high-hit-rate wallet is making a concentrated $20k cross-market geopolitical bet, though this specific leg was bought above the current price after a sharp move.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k realized
- They put about $25k across 5 related US-Iran markets, showing a coordinated event-level view
- This market already jumped 48.5 points in a day, but their buys came at 60-68¢ while it now trades near 57¢
$20,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% win-rate event bettor
Profitable cross-market trader with an 87% hit rate bought into a major geopolitics market as part of a broader $54k event thesis, making this worth tracking despite the market already moving lower since entry.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
- They have put $54k across 5 related US-Iran markets, which points to a coordinated event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 74¢ in a fast-moving news market that has since dropped to 57¢, so only a much cheaper follow is attractive.
$5,094 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner, event thesis
Profitable cross-market trader with an 87% hit rate is making another event-level bet, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random one-off.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime
- They have put $53k across 5 related US-Iran markets, which points to a deliberate event-level view
- This buy came at 69¢ before the market pulled back to 61¢, offering a cheaper entry than the original trade
$3,754 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% win-rate event trader
A profitable 87% win-rate wallet is making a fresh $9.2k Yes bet while building a broader 5-market thesis across the same event, which is worth following despite the market already moving sharply.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k overall.
- They have put $58.6k across 5 related markets in the same event, suggesting a strong broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes between 61¢ and 69¢, and one fill came below the current 64¢ market.
$9,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xa510...1f80 — Yes, $44,192
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $37,852 (72% win rate)
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Yes, $34,576 (25% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $20,041 (76% win rate)
- 0xc266...2f2f — Yes, $18,635 (43% win rate)
- 0x1437...acfe — Yes, $14,000
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $9,115 (51% win rate)
- 0x67f9...d241 — Yes, $8,382 (68% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Yes, $6,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — Yes, $5,812 (43% win rate)
