US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if authorized officials from both governments meet in an official capacity on US-Iran relations before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking limited smart money activity on this market, including one recent geopolitics bettor signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

90% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A historically strong wallet with a 90% win rate is buying No at 87¢ in a geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day drop, suggesting a disciplined thesis worth tracking despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their trades with 123 wins in 137 resolved markets
  • They bought No at 87¢ after the market dropped 19.5% in a day, backing the current move
  • The wallet is also trading related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $16,320 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d Yes, $12,451 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xc0ff...9953 No, $10,951 (51% win rate)
  4. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $7,269 (48% win rate)
  5. 0xb100...6461 No, $6,523 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x61e7...6e8b No, $5,748 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x7511...a568 No, $5,730 (50% win rate)
  8. 0x25db...28de Yes, $4,095 (51% win rate)
  9. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $2,552 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x0562...9d66 Yes, $2,435 (42% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

2d$2,000 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
13¢
No
87¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
89¢
71¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

2h ago

$2,000 on No at 87¢

87¢87¢

Related Theses