Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $76,608.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp cluster buying Yes

Three wallets with strong historical results all flipped into the Yes side across related Iran diplomacy markets after a sharp 1-day selloff, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine whale flow.

  • Three wallets lined up on Yes, and two of them win 86% to 87% of resolved bets.
  • This cluster has been active across 5 related Iran markets with nearly $38k deployed, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • They entered around 16¢ to 20¢ after this market fell 37% in a day, implying they see the selloff as overdone.

$3,469 on Yes

Repeat new wallet thesis bet

A repeat new wallet with over $34.8k in flagged bets just made a fresh $10.1k move across multiple related Iran diplomacy markets, effectively buying Yes here after a sharp 1-day price drop.

  • This new wallet has already triggered 13 large-bet alerts and has put $24.1k across 4 related markets in the same event
  • These trades effectively buy Yes at 16-20¢ by selling No, a sizable $10.1k position after this market fell 60 points in a day
  • The bettor is adding a coordinated event-level view, not making a one-off punt on a random market

$10,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Sharp event trader buying Yes

A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is buying Yes at 30¢ while also positioning across 7 related markets into a 25x volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $215.8k lifetime across 324 settled bets.
  • They have put $57.3k across 7 related markets in this event, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 30¢ during a 25x volume spike, implying they see the meeting as materially more likely than the market price.

$3,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

87% winner building thesis

Profitable wallet with an 87% hit rate is deploying over $5k into Yes here as part of a much larger $73k cross-market thesis across the same event.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
  • They’ve put $73k across 5 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought Yes at 57-61¢ after this market already jumped 32.5% in a day, showing conviction even after the move.

$5,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

87% winner buying Yes

Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making a fresh $7.9k directional bet across multiple related US-Iran markets as this market breaks sharply higher.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $121k lifetime.
  • They just put $7.9k into Yes across 3 buys around 66-70¢, showing fresh conviction.
  • They are trading 3 related US-Iran markets, and this market is already up 49 points in a day.

$7,879 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp cross-market thesis bettor

A profitable high-win-rate wallet put nearly $30k into Yes across seven buys and is also building a broader US-Iran event thesis across three related markets.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $121k lifetime.
  • They bought nearly $30k of Yes in 7 trades, showing strong conviction rather than a one-off punt.
  • They are betting across 3 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader event-driven thesis.

$29,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

3-wallet Yes surge

Three wallets piled into Yes as this market ripped higher, combining coordinated one-sided flow with a 23-point price jump and at least two profitable bettors backing the move.

  • Three wallets all bought Yes for nearly $6.9k as the market jumped 23 points in a day
  • One wallet with a 63% win rate and nearly $69k profit joined the move, and another has over 1,000 resolved bets
  • Two buys went in at 56-57¢ while the market now sits at 70¢, suggesting fast repricing behind the thesis

$6,922 on Yes

Repeat new wallet betting No

A repeat new wallet has already put $17k+ across this event and just added a concentrated $7.5k No position, signaling strong fresh conviction on a geopolitically relevant market.

  • This new wallet has already been flagged 7 times and has put $17k+ to work soon after appearing.
  • They bought $7.5k of No in three back-to-back trades at 70-76¢, showing concentrated conviction.
  • The wallet is betting across 4 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$7,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

85% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market event bet here, and their broad 7-market positioning on the same US-Iran event suggests a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $397k lifetime
  • They have wagered nearly $40k across 7 related markets in this same event, showing a coordinated thesis
  • They bought No at 73¢ after a 19-point one-day move, suggesting they still see value even after the market shifted

$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% win-rate event specialist

A proven 82% win-rate trader with over $1.1M deployed across 60 related markets is adding a fresh Yes position in a thin geopolitics market that has already moved up after entry.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 260 bets and has put over $1.1M into similar event-driven markets
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with positions across 29 events, which suggests a repeatable edge on news and diplomacy markets
  • They bought Yes at 52¢ in a market with only $6.8k of 24-hour volume, and the price has already moved up to 58¢

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 91837835, $61,956 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xd426...334a Outcome 91837835, $5,595 (42% win rate)
  3. 0xd519...932c Outcome 91837835, $5,556 (18% win rate)
  4. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 91837835, $4,000 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x6dce...4490 Outcome 91837835, $3,495 (19% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 91837835, $3,062 (59% win rate)
  7. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 91837835, $2,068 (59% win rate)
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 91837835, $2,058 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x1851...ae47 Outcome 91837835, $2,000
  10. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 91837835, $1,625 (87% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$76,608 tracked10 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

41d ago

$3,469 on Yes at 19¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

42d ago

$10,128 on Yes at 18¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

42d ago

$3,078 on Yes at 30¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

42d ago

$5,071 on Yes at 59¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

42d ago

$7,879 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

42d ago

$29,737 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

43d ago

$6,922 on Yes at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

43d ago

$7,500 on No at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

43d ago

$1,825 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

45d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 52¢

Related Theses