Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $76,608.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets with strong historical results all flipped into the Yes side across related Iran diplomacy markets after a sharp 1-day selloff, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine whale flow.
- Three wallets lined up on Yes, and two of them win 86% to 87% of resolved bets.
- This cluster has been active across 5 related Iran markets with nearly $38k deployed, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They entered around 16¢ to 20¢ after this market fell 37% in a day, implying they see the selloff as overdone.
$3,469 on Yes
Repeat new wallet thesis bet
A repeat new wallet with over $34.8k in flagged bets just made a fresh $10.1k move across multiple related Iran diplomacy markets, effectively buying Yes here after a sharp 1-day price drop.
- This new wallet has already triggered 13 large-bet alerts and has put $24.1k across 4 related markets in the same event
- These trades effectively buy Yes at 16-20¢ by selling No, a sizable $10.1k position after this market fell 60 points in a day
- The bettor is adding a coordinated event-level view, not making a one-off punt on a random market
$10,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp event trader buying Yes
A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is buying Yes at 30¢ while also positioning across 7 related markets into a 25x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $215.8k lifetime across 324 settled bets.
- They have put $57.3k across 7 related markets in this event, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 30¢ during a 25x volume spike, implying they see the meeting as materially more likely than the market price.
$3,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
87% winner building thesis
Profitable wallet with an 87% hit rate is deploying over $5k into Yes here as part of a much larger $73k cross-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $128k lifetime.
- They’ve put $73k across 5 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 57-61¢ after this market already jumped 32.5% in a day, showing conviction even after the move.
$5,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner buying Yes
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making a fresh $7.9k directional bet across multiple related US-Iran markets as this market breaks sharply higher.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $121k lifetime.
- They just put $7.9k into Yes across 3 buys around 66-70¢, showing fresh conviction.
- They are trading 3 related US-Iran markets, and this market is already up 49 points in a day.
$7,879 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp cross-market thesis bettor
A profitable high-win-rate wallet put nearly $30k into Yes across seven buys and is also building a broader US-Iran event thesis across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $121k lifetime.
- They bought nearly $30k of Yes in 7 trades, showing strong conviction rather than a one-off punt.
- They are betting across 3 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader event-driven thesis.
$29,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes as this market ripped higher, combining coordinated one-sided flow with a 23-point price jump and at least two profitable bettors backing the move.
- Three wallets all bought Yes for nearly $6.9k as the market jumped 23 points in a day
- One wallet with a 63% win rate and nearly $69k profit joined the move, and another has over 1,000 resolved bets
- Two buys went in at 56-57¢ while the market now sits at 70¢, suggesting fast repricing behind the thesis
$6,922 on Yes
Repeat new wallet betting No
A repeat new wallet has already put $17k+ across this event and just added a concentrated $7.5k No position, signaling strong fresh conviction on a geopolitically relevant market.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 7 times and has put $17k+ to work soon after appearing.
- They bought $7.5k of No in three back-to-back trades at 70-76¢, showing concentrated conviction.
- The wallet is betting across 4 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$7,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market event bet here, and their broad 7-market positioning on the same US-Iran event suggests a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $397k lifetime
- They have wagered nearly $40k across 7 related markets in this same event, showing a coordinated thesis
- They bought No at 73¢ after a 19-point one-day move, suggesting they still see value even after the market shifted
$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% win-rate event specialist
A proven 82% win-rate trader with over $1.1M deployed across 60 related markets is adding a fresh Yes position in a thin geopolitics market that has already moved up after entry.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 260 bets and has put over $1.1M into similar event-driven markets
- They are a serial cross-market trader with positions across 29 events, which suggests a repeatable edge on news and diplomacy markets
- They bought Yes at 52¢ in a market with only $6.8k of 24-hour volume, and the price has already moved up to 58¢
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 91837835, $61,956 (69% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 91837835, $5,595 (42% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 91837835, $5,556 (18% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 91837835, $4,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x6dce...4490 — Outcome 91837835, $3,495 (19% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 91837835, $3,062 (59% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 91837835, $2,068 (59% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 91837835, $2,058 (82% win rate)
- 0x1851...ae47 — Outcome 91837835, $2,000
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 91837835, $1,625 (87% win rate)
