Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 16, 2026. It focuses on direct, authorized diplomacy over US-Iran relations and resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying meeting occurs before the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,124 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,124.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Serial geopolitics bettor

Serial cross-market trader is backing No on a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market while holding a broader $15.5k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is not strong.

  • This bettor is active across related markets, with 52 resolved markets and $239k previously deployed across 30 events.
  • They have built a broader $15.5k position across 4 markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This $1.1k buy was over 3.5x the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful move in a very quiet order book.

$1,124 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0xaf23...aa95 No, $1,362 (62% win rate)
  2. 0x0652...9134 Yes, $495 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x4214...6c68 Yes, $481
  4. 0x121d...832a Yes, $300
  5. 0x9f66...3a50 No, $240 (73% win rate)
  6. 0xe8c4...395d No, $210 (96% win rate)
  7. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $185
  8. 0x1cdd...e595 Yes, $104
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $94
  10. 0x3078...0389 Yes, $60

Related Theses

No US-Iran meeting by June

Covers 4 related markets

Israel keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Project Freedom restarts in June

Covers 2 related markets

Trump won't announce Iran ceasefire

Covers 1 related market

US invades Iran before 2027

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz traffic normalizes by June

Covers 1 related market

SpaceX IPO tops $2.2T

Covers 1 related market

US secures Iranian enriched uranium

Covers 1 related market

Starmer out by 2026

Covers 1 related market

Russia Ukraine talks will happen

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

3dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$1,124 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
88¢
79¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

3h ago

$1,124 on No at 83¢

83¢86¢3¢

Related Theses