Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 16, 2026. It focuses on direct, authorized diplomacy over US-Iran relations and resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying meeting occurs before the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,124 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,124.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Serial geopolitics bettor
Serial cross-market trader is backing No on a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market while holding a broader $15.5k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is not strong.
- This bettor is active across related markets, with 52 resolved markets and $239k previously deployed across 30 events.
- They have built a broader $15.5k position across 4 markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This $1.1k buy was over 3.5x the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful move in a very quiet order book.
$1,124 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0xaf23...aa95 — No, $1,362 (62% win rate)
- 0x0652...9134 — Yes, $495 (70% win rate)
- 0x4214...6c68 — Yes, $481
- 0x121d...832a — Yes, $300
- 0x9f66...3a50 — No, $240 (73% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $210 (96% win rate)
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $185
- 0x1cdd...e595 — Yes, $104
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $94
- 0x3078...0389 — Yes, $60
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