Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $163,699.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.

$1,998 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.

$2,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.

$1,595 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.

$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

75% winner buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.

$1,815 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

75% winner event specialist

Sharp cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and $235k profit is adding bullish exposure across a large US-Iran event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $235k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 markets in this same event for $116k, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Selling No at 38¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 62¢, even after Yes has jumped 26 points today.

$1,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

75% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp, profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes position across a high-volume US-Iran diplomacy event with strong recent price momentum.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $235K lifetime.
  • They are active across 10 markets in this same event, with $116K positioned around the thesis.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 25.5 points in the past day.

$1,819 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp cross-market contrarian

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and $235k lifetime profit is taking a contrarian No position after heavy related-market activity.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 markets in this same event for about $120k, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • After a big Yes rally, they closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 32¢.

$4,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is taking the No side after heavy related-market positioning.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $235k lifetime.
  • They have traded 166 markets across 93 events, including $115k across 10 related markets here.
  • They closed a large Yes position and are now buying No at 28¢, a clear shift against the recent Yes surge.

$1,237 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp cross-market contrarian

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 75% long-run win rate is flipping/hedging into No after a major Yes rally and event-wide positioning.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $235k lifetime across 397 markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 93 events with $7.8M traded and 75% wins.
  • They bought No at 26¢ after Yes surged 42% in a day, suggesting a contrarian or hedge-backed view.

$2,564 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $455,903 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x02d8...0c91 Yes, $129,273 (84% win rate)
  3. 0xa022...77f8 No, $102,098 (71% win rate)
  4. 0x5739...5f1a No, $68,482 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x5109...5e9c No, $42,277 (39% win rate)
  6. 0x6e4b...3c6d No, $40,115 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xa771...42d1 No, $36,963 (73% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $32,082 (47% win rate)
  9. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $30,174 (81% win rate)
  10. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $25,000 (72% win rate)

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Hormuz deadlines are mispriced

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$163,699 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
69¢
No
31¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
74¢
50¢
27¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

17h ago

$1,998 on No at 33¢

33¢31¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$2,050 on No at 33¢

33¢31¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,595 on No at 33¢

33¢31¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,320 on No at 33¢

33¢31¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,815 on Yes at 72¢

72¢69¢3¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,695 on Yes at 62¢

62¢69¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,819 on Yes at 62¢

62¢69¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$4,016 on No at 32¢

32¢31¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,237 on No at 28¢

28¢31¢3¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$2,564 on No at 26¢

26¢31¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,676 on No at 25¢

25¢31¢6¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,876 on No at 26¢

26¢31¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,207 on Yes at 70¢

70¢69¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$3,139 on Yes at 74¢

74¢69¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$2,833 on Yes at 68¢

68¢69¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$2,040 on Yes at 68¢

68¢69¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,082 on Yes at 64¢

64¢69¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$3,900 on No at 38¢

38¢31¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$7,269 on Yes at 67¢

67¢69¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,506 on Yes at 60¢

60¢69¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,182 on Yes at 32¢

32¢69¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$2,074 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$2,556 on No at 68¢

68¢31¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$2,440 on No at 71¢

71¢31¢40¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$3,444 on No at 70¢

70¢31¢39¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,093 on No at 68¢

68¢31¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$7,300 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,710 on No at 66¢

66¢31¢35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$3,826 on Yes at 38¢

38¢69¢31¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$5,440 on Yes at 32¢

32¢69¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$3,993 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$7,495 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,401 on No at 68¢

68¢31¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$5,140 on No at 67¢

67¢31¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$18,292 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3d ago

$2,460 on Yes at 37¢

37¢69¢32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

4d ago

$2,685 on No at 63¢

63¢31¢32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

4d ago

$6,476 on Yes at 40¢

40¢69¢29¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

4d ago

$2,640 on Yes at 34¢

34¢69¢35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

1d ago

$4,530 on Yes at 74¢

74¢69¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$5,741 on Yes at 33¢

33¢69¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$5,988 on Yes at 32¢

32¢69¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$8,887 on Yes at 31¢

31¢69¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

6d ago

$1,340 on No at 67¢

67¢31¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

6d ago

$1,410 on No at 68¢

68¢31¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

6d ago

$2,000 on No at 69¢

69¢31¢38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

6d ago

$1,020 on No at 68¢

68¢31¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

7d ago

$1,915 on No at 67¢

67¢31¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

7d ago

$1,241 on No at 66¢

66¢31¢35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

7d ago

$1,344 on Yes at 38¢

38¢69¢31¢

Related Theses