US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,749.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market NO buyer

Serial cross-market political trader with positive history bought No at 30¢, and the position is already moving in their favor to 34¢.

  • This bettor has traded 58 markets across 33 events and is up $57K overall.
  • They put $16K into 3 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Entry at 30¢ has already moved to 34¢, implying early market validation of the No position.

$4,749 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $21,603 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xa022...77f8 No, $15,629 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x473c...4f61 No, $9,148 (62% win rate)
  4. 0xc91b...93bd Yes, $7,609
  5. 0x6d16...7228 No, $3,226
  6. 0xc21e...e6d3 No, $3,163
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $2,770 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $2,251
  9. 0x8f5d...eab9 No, $2,193 (29% win rate)
  10. 0xa344...8141 Yes, $1,725

Related Theses

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Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

14d$4,749 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
68¢
No
32¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
81¢
68¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

3h ago

$4,749 on No at 30¢

30¢32¢2¢

Related Theses