US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, official-capacity meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. Traders are using this market to price the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough amid broader US-Iran geopolitical tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,247.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

88% win-rate bettor

A bettor with an 88% win rate and nearly 1,100 resolved markets bought Yes at 68¢, making this worth surfacing despite the weak automated score.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their trades across 1,101 resolved markets and is up about $97k lifetime
  • They opened a fresh $2.2k Yes position at 68¢, a meaningful bet from a proven trader
  • The market is still reasonably liquid, so this looks more like informed conviction than random thin-market noise

$2,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $5,000 (85% win rate)
  2. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $3,543 (88% win rate)
  3. 0x8b40...8ab4 Yes, $2,202 (59% win rate)
  4. 0x5352...0f90 Yes, $1,172
  5. 0x85d5...bbf0 No, $659
  6. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $591
  7. 0xafd2...9693 Yes, $500 (27% win rate)
  8. 0x6872...876f No, $420 (22% win rate)
  9. 0xff7c...b233 No, $400 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x1eff...9e03 No, $340

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

12d$2,247 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
67¢
No
33¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
76¢
67¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

2h ago

$2,247 on Yes at 68¢

68¢67¢1¢

Related Theses