Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $112,325.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market trader buying NO
A high-win-rate wallet with a large cross-market US-Iran thesis flipped into No, buying $7.9k here after positioning across 5 related markets.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $71k lifetime.
- They have put $164k across 5 related US-Iran markets, all pointing to the same thesis.
- They bought No at 90¢ and the market has already moved to 92¢.
$7,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
86% winner buying long-shot YES
A highly profitable 86% win-rate wallet is buying Yes at 6¢ while also positioning across multiple related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.28M lifetime.
- They have placed $17K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Entry at 6¢ is below the current 8¢ market price, implying a high-upside long-shot position.
$2,715 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet is expressing a broad No thesis across 10 related US-Iran markets, with $54.5k total positioned and current momentum strongly supporting the direction.
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $13.8k lifetime.
- They have $54.5k spread across 10 related markets, all pointing to the same US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ follows strong momentum, with Yes down 50% over the past week.
$1,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
73% winner pressing NO
Profitable 73% winner is expressing a broader US-Iran thesis across 10 related markets, adding a fresh No buy after prior No exposure.
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $13.8K lifetime.
- They have put $53K across 10 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broad diplomatic-meeting thesis.
- This is a fresh No re-entry at 83¢ after the market moved sharply toward No this week.
$1,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market thesis
A profitable wallet has built a broad $185k cross-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis and flipped from No to Yes here, though the position is currently underwater.
- This bettor is up about $36k lifetime and has traded 9 related US-Iran markets with $185k deployed.
- They flipped from a prior No position into Yes, suggesting a fresh change in view rather than routine profit-taking.
- Their 20¢ Yes entry is now available cheaper around 12–14¢, making the copy entry better than the original trade.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$12,000 | Wallet win rate: 73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,080 | Wallet win rate: 0%
93% win-rate cross-market bettor
A high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same thesis across five related US-Iran markets, adding a repeatable cross-market edge signal even though this individual trade is modest in size.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $8.4k overall
- They have put $19.2k across 5 related US-Iran markets, showing a consistent event-level view
- Bought No at 83¢ while the market was falling, suggesting they still see low odds of a meeting
$1,246 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
9-wallet geopolitical cluster
Nine wallets sold No at 82-83¢ in a $38.6k coordinated move, which converts to buying Yes around 17-18¢, alongside a 32x volume spike and a sharp 1-day price move in a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
- Nine wallets hit this market in the same window for $38.6k, a strong one-way flow signal.
- Their sells of No at 82-83¢ translate to buying Yes around 17-18¢, right as market volume ran 32x above normal.
- This is a real-world geopolitics market and the price already moved 13.5 points in a day, suggesting traders are repositioning fast.
$38,562 on Yes
85% winner across 12 markets
Proven 85% winner is actively trading across 12 related Iran-event markets, and this sell of No converts to a fresh buy of Yes at 16¢ despite the market still pricing only a small chance.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $422k lifetime.
- They have put nearly $99k across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated event-level thesis.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a cheap entry for a sharp trader's view after the market already fell 11 points today.
$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xe4f6...d00e — Outcome 89402587, $315,394 (80% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 89402587, $134,999 (69% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 89402587, $52,685 (70% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 89402587, $44,028 (80% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 89402587, $26,238 (70% win rate)
- 0xe66b...91a9 — Outcome 89402587, $8,241
- 0x1a6d...7104 — Outcome 89402587, $8,185 (37% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Outcome 89402587, $8,000 (44% win rate)
- 0xba3c...799d — Outcome 89402587, $8,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xad7f...d0d4 — Outcome 89402587, $4,949 (86% win rate)
