Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $112,325.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market trader buying NO

A high-win-rate wallet with a large cross-market US-Iran thesis flipped into No, buying $7.9k here after positioning across 5 related markets.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $71k lifetime.
  • They have put $164k across 5 related US-Iran markets, all pointing to the same thesis.
  • They bought No at 90¢ and the market has already moved to 92¢.

$7,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

86% winner buying long-shot YES

A highly profitable 86% win-rate wallet is buying Yes at 6¢ while also positioning across multiple related US-Iran markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.28M lifetime.
  • They have placed $17K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
  • Entry at 6¢ is below the current 8¢ market price, implying a high-upside long-shot position.

$2,715 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market No bettor

Profitable wallet is expressing a broad No thesis across 10 related US-Iran markets, with $54.5k total positioned and current momentum strongly supporting the direction.

  • This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $13.8k lifetime.
  • They have $54.5k spread across 10 related markets, all pointing to the same US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
  • Buying No at 90¢ follows strong momentum, with Yes down 50% over the past week.

$1,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

73% winner pressing NO

Profitable 73% winner is expressing a broader US-Iran thesis across 10 related markets, adding a fresh No buy after prior No exposure.

  • This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $13.8K lifetime.
  • They have put $53K across 10 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broad diplomatic-meeting thesis.
  • This is a fresh No re-entry at 83¢ after the market moved sharply toward No this week.

$1,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cross-market thesis

A profitable wallet has built a broad $185k cross-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis and flipped from No to Yes here, though the position is currently underwater.

  • This bettor is up about $36k lifetime and has traded 9 related US-Iran markets with $185k deployed.
  • They flipped from a prior No position into Yes, suggesting a fresh change in view rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Their 20¢ Yes entry is now available cheaper around 12–14¢, making the copy entry better than the original trade.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$12,000 | Wallet win rate: 73%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,080 | Wallet win rate: 0%

93% win-rate cross-market bettor

A high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same thesis across five related US-Iran markets, adding a repeatable cross-market edge signal even though this individual trade is modest in size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $8.4k overall
  • They have put $19.2k across 5 related US-Iran markets, showing a consistent event-level view
  • Bought No at 83¢ while the market was falling, suggesting they still see low odds of a meeting

$1,246 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

9-wallet geopolitical cluster

Nine wallets sold No at 82-83¢ in a $38.6k coordinated move, which converts to buying Yes around 17-18¢, alongside a 32x volume spike and a sharp 1-day price move in a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.

  • Nine wallets hit this market in the same window for $38.6k, a strong one-way flow signal.
  • Their sells of No at 82-83¢ translate to buying Yes around 17-18¢, right as market volume ran 32x above normal.
  • This is a real-world geopolitics market and the price already moved 13.5 points in a day, suggesting traders are repositioning fast.

$38,562 on Yes

85% winner across 12 markets

Proven 85% winner is actively trading across 12 related Iran-event markets, and this sell of No converts to a fresh buy of Yes at 16¢ despite the market still pricing only a small chance.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $422k lifetime.
  • They have put nearly $99k across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated event-level thesis.
  • Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a cheap entry for a sharp trader's view after the market already fell 11 points today.

$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe4f6...d00e Outcome 89402587, $315,394 (80% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 89402587, $134,999 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 89402587, $52,685 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 89402587, $44,028 (80% win rate)
  5. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 89402587, $26,238 (70% win rate)
  6. 0xe66b...91a9 Outcome 89402587, $8,241
  7. 0x1a6d...7104 Outcome 89402587, $8,185 (37% win rate)
  8. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 89402587, $8,000 (44% win rate)
  9. 0xba3c...799d Outcome 89402587, $8,000 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xad7f...d0d4 Outcome 89402587, $4,949 (86% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$112,325 tracked21 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

36d ago

$7,860 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

37d ago

$2,715 on Yes at 6¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

37d ago

$1,119 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

37d ago

$1,531 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

37d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

38d ago

$12,000

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

38d ago

$1,080

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$1,246 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$38,562 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$1,680 on Yes at 16¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$1,773 on No at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$4,308 on No at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

39d ago

$3,530 on Yes at 31¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

40d ago

$3,471 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

40d ago

$5,246 on Yes at 30¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

40d ago

$4,762 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

40d ago

$1,308 on Yes at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

42d ago

$1,925 on No at 66¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

42d ago

$11,689 on No at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

43d ago

$1,271 on Yes at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

45d ago

$2,247 on Yes at 68¢

Related Theses