US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 10, 2026. It resolves Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial encounters do not count. Traders are watching this market as a live gauge of US-Iran diplomacy and geopolitical risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,500.
Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
95% hit-rate geopolitics bettor
A very high-hit-rate wallet with nearly 1,000 resolved bets is adding a cross-market geopolitical position despite weak standalone trade size, making this worth watching mainly for the trader’s track record.
- This bettor wins 95% of 968 resolved trades, a rare hit rate worth tracking.
- They bet across 2 related markets in the same event with $11.5k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off click.
- They bought No at 77¢ after a fast move toward No, signaling conviction that no official meeting happens by the deadline.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0xfd8f...6f11 — Yes, $11,096
- 0xa04d...eecf — No, $8,593 (73% win rate)
- 0xc53b...7049 — Yes, $7,568
- 0x3172...1160 — Yes, $5,715
- 0x2779...239a — Yes, $5,457
- 0xd7f3...3d98 — Yes, $5,162
- 0xc7bf...cbef — Yes, $5,036 (29% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $4,786 (88% win rate)
- 0xea79...a9cc — No, $4,271 (64% win rate)
- 0x3bcf...e964 — Yes, $4,021 (72% win rate)
