US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 10, 2026. It resolves Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial encounters do not count. Traders are watching this market as a live gauge of US-Iran diplomacy and geopolitical risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,500.

Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

95% hit-rate geopolitics bettor

A very high-hit-rate wallet with nearly 1,000 resolved bets is adding a cross-market geopolitical position despite weak standalone trade size, making this worth watching mainly for the trader’s track record.

  • This bettor wins 95% of 968 resolved trades, a rare hit rate worth tracking.
  • They bet across 2 related markets in the same event with $11.5k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off click.
  • They bought No at 77¢ after a fast move toward No, signaling conviction that no official meeting happens by the deadline.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfd8f...6f11 Yes, $11,096
  2. 0xa04d...eecf No, $8,593 (73% win rate)
  3. 0xc53b...7049 Yes, $7,568
  4. 0x3172...1160 Yes, $5,715
  5. 0x2779...239a Yes, $5,457
  6. 0xd7f3...3d98 Yes, $5,162
  7. 0xc7bf...cbef Yes, $5,036 (29% win rate)
  8. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $4,786 (88% win rate)
  9. 0xea79...a9cc No, $4,271 (64% win rate)
  10. 0x3bcf...e964 Yes, $4,021 (72% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

3h$1,500 tracked1 signalIranKushnerGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpKhameneiWitkoffIran Ceasefire
Yes
26¢
No
74¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
100¢
60¢
20¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

2h ago

$1,500 on No at 77¢

77¢74¢3¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Meeting by Apr 10, 2026? Polymarket Odds | PolySpotter