Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Abelardo de la Espriella will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, including a potential second round. The election is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a runoff on June 21, 2026 if needed, and PolySpotter is tracking $6,079 in smart money activity across 2 signals for this market.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $201,996.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
93% winner trimming YES
A proven 93% win-rate wallet sold Yes after a large profitable prior position, making this a watch-worthy but weaker fade signal because it may be profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 93% of 55 resolved positions and is up $10.3K lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 82¢ after previously entering around 67¢, so this may be profit-taking rather than a full bearish flip.
- The market has jumped 20 points this week, making a sharp bettor’s exit worth watching.
$1,457 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable election thesis bettor
Surface because a proven profitable wallet with 82% wins is adding a meaningful Yes position as part of a broader cross-market thesis on the election.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $62K lifetime.
- They have placed $26.9K across 3 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Yes has moved 18 points this week, and this trade adds at 82¢ despite the higher price.
$4,622 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable election bettor
Experienced profitable wallet is adding a fresh Yes position after cross-market Colombian election activity and strong recent momentum.
- This bettor has 665 resolved trades, wins 69% of them, and is up about $38.9k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 markets in the same election event, with about $8.8k total exposure.
- The market has moved sharply toward this outcome, up 17 points over the past week.
$2,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cross-market contrarian
Profitable political bettor with a 72% resolved record is taking a cross-market contrarian position against the 84¢ favorite.
- This bettor has won 72% of resolved trades and is up $30.4k lifetime.
- They have $17.5k positioned across related Colombian election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 83¢ is effectively buying No at 17¢ against a market that has moved +17 points this week.
$3,346 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable contrarian election bettor
Profitable wallet is making a $9.1k contrarian sell of the 83¢ favorite while positioning across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor has won 72% of resolved trades and is up $30k lifetime.
- The $9.1k sell of the 83¢ favorite is equivalent to buying No at 17¢.
- They are active across two markets in the same election event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$9,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market election bettor
Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved record is building an $11.4k cross-market thesis on the Colombian election despite the candidate already trading at 82%.
- This bettor has won 72% of resolved trades and is up $30.3k lifetime.
- They have put $11.4k across two related Colombian election markets, suggesting a focused thesis.
- The market has moved up 16 points this week, and this buy adds to that momentum at 82¢.
$4,361 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
New repeat political bettor
A 17-day-old repeat large bettor with early positive P&L is buying into a liquid Colombian election market with strong recent Yes momentum.
- This 17-day-old wallet has triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling $29.5k.
- The bettor is already up $407 and has won all 4 resolved bets so far.
- They bought Yes at 83¢ after the market moved 17 points higher this week.
$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Fresh wallet $15K Yes bet
A brand-new wallet made a $14.9K Yes buy on a political market with recent upward momentum, suggesting possible informed conviction despite no track record.
- A 3-hour-old wallet put nearly $15K on Yes, a large first move for a new account.
- The bet equals about 28% of the market’s 24h volume, so this is meaningful size rather than noise.
- The market has already moved up 11 points this week, and this trade is adding to that momentum.
$14,942 on Yes
New whale fading favorite
A 4-day-old wallet has now placed six large flagged bets totaling $44.6k, and this trade is a sizable contrarian position against the current 80% favorite in a major politics market.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets totaling $44.6k.
- The bettor is taking the contrarian side, effectively buying No at 20¢ against an 80% favorite.
- Colombian election markets are news-driven, so a repeated large position may reflect a specific political thesis.
$11,862 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
998-win sharp fading favorite
A highly proven wallet with 998 wins in 999 resolved bets is fading the 80% Yes price with an $8,000 equivalent BUY No position.
- This bettor has won 998 of 999 resolved bets and is up about $6.2k lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 80¢ is equivalent to buying No at 20¢, a clear fade of the current favorite.
- The market has rallied 7.5 points this week, but this sharp wallet is taking the other side.
$8,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $815,826
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $82,772 (69% win rate)
- 0x3dca...3c13 — Yes, $60,580 (82% win rate)
- 0xa83c...a8f4 — Yes, $24,523 (100% win rate)
- 0x21c0...4827 — Yes, $21,719
- 0x0ced...5452 — Yes, $21,106 (67% win rate)
- 0x3989...27b1 — Yes, $20,644 (43% win rate)
- 0x38e5...95e7 — Yes, $18,505 (79% win rate)
- 0x1999...0cdf — Yes, $16,923
- 0xd33c...2ab5 — Yes, $16,846
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