Part of: Berlin State Election Winner

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

This Polymarket market tracks whether Alternative for Germany (AfD) will win the greatest number of seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election scheduled for September 20, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,434 in smart money activity on this market, with a recent signal showing an 85% winner buying NO. The market is expected to resolve based on the official seat results of the 2026 Berlin state election.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,434.

Categories: Global Elections, Politics, Elections, Germany, World Elections, World, German Elections, Main Election

Notable Trades

85% winner buys NO

A highly profitable political bettor with an 85% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No, and the price has already moved in their favor.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.08M lifetime.
  • They have traded 58 markets across 43 events, suggesting a repeat political-market edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 82¢, and the market has already moved to 86¢ after the trade.

$1,434 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $36,195
  2. 0xacea...8b97 Yes, $11,576 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xe3f2...e1c1 Yes, $6,726 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xb619...5068 Yes, $5,020 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x90c8...9617 Yes, $3,520
  6. 0x94c4...43ca Yes, $2,882 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x23d8...0288 No, $2,730 (83% win rate)
  8. 0x8dc7...116f Yes, $2,188
  9. 0xd848...82c6 Yes, $1,943
  10. 0x6932...e4a7 Yes, $1,906

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Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

62dBerlin State Election Winner$1,434 tracked1 signalGlobal ElectionsPoliticsElectionsGermanyWorld ElectionsWorldGerman ElectionsMain Election
Yes
13¢
No
87¢

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Price History — “No
90¢
84¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

2d ago

$1,434 on No at 82¢

82¢87¢5¢

Related Theses