Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,649.
Notable Trades
86% win-rate political bettor
A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate is making a fresh cross-market political bet on No in a major election market at 81¢, fitting a broad event-level thesis rather than random activity.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $236k lifetime across 185 settled bets
- They have traded 13 markets tied to this same election event and 62 markets across 27 events, showing a repeatable thesis-driven style
- They bought No at 81¢ in a liquid election market, implying they see Carlos Álvarez as less likely to win than the current 19% Yes price suggests
$1,218 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
86% win-rate election bettor
A proven 86% win-rate political trader with broad cross-market activity is reopening a No position on Carlos Álvarez at 81¢, signaling continued conviction despite already having traded this market successfully before.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved markets and is up $235.7k across 185 settled bets
- They have traded 62 markets across 27 events, including 13 markets tied to this election event
- They bought No at 81¢ after previously closing a larger No position in this market, suggesting renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking
$1,451 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
A proven 86% winner is re-entering the same NO side in a 2026 Peru election market after previously trading it successfully, part of a much broader 13-market event thesis.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $228k across 182 settled bets
- They are betting across 13 markets tied to the same event, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought NO at 85¢ in a liquid market after previously trading this side, showing continued conviction even for a modest edge
$3,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $149,772
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $44,471 (83% win rate)
- 0x784f...5df9 — No, $17,934 (87% win rate)
- 0xe5a6...0a76 — Yes, $15,486
- 0xf42f...a6a7 — Yes, $14,940
- 0x3dca...3c13 — Yes, $11,647 (80% win rate)
- 0x5f07...66c8 — Yes, $7,997
- 0x0414...be21 — Yes, $7,216
- 0xc01f...cd8e — No, $6,986
- 0xf6b1...aaad — Yes, $5,619
