Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,842.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election
Notable Trades
87% win-rate election bettor
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering a No position on this election market as part of a broad 13-market Peru election thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 188 settled markets
- They have put $52k across 13 markets in this same Peru election event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 85¢ in a liquid market after previously trading this market heavily, suggesting continued conviction that Álvarez is unlikely to win
$3,411 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable political trader with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide bet on the same Peruvian election slate, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $242k across 187 settled markets.
- They have traded 13 markets tied to this same election event for about $50k total, pointing to a broad Peru election thesis.
- This buy adds fresh No exposure at 85¢, a high-confidence position in a liquid market despite recent Yes-side price strength fading.
$1,362 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election sharp
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making another sizable cross-market political bet in the same event, adding a fresh No position at 85¢ despite already having extensive profitable history on related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $242k lifetime.
- They have traded 67 markets across 31 events, including 13 markets tied to this election event.
- Bought No at 85¢, implying they see Carlos Álvarez as less likely than the current 15% Yes price suggests.
$3,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% winner across 13 markets
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making a fresh $7.3k add-on-style bet against this candidate while expressing the same thesis across 13 related election markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k lifetime across 187 settled bets.
- They have put $50.8k across 13 markets in this same Peru election event, pointing to a broad election thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This trade bought No at 81¢, a high-conviction position that says Carlos Álvarez is still overpriced despite already low 19% Yes odds.
$7,282 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election sharp
A proven sharp wallet with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh No exposure in a liquid political market after strong cross-market success.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 187 settled markets
- They have traded 13 markets in this same Peru election event for $43k total, suggesting a broad event-level thesis
- They bought No at 81¢ in a liquid market, a high-confidence favorite price this wallet has repeatedly profited from
$3,227 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% winner, Peru election thesis
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate is reopening a No position in a major political market, extending a broad multi-market Peru election thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243.6k across 187 settled markets
- They have bet 13 markets tied to this same election event, suggesting a broad Peru election view rather than a one-off punt
- This is a fresh No entry at 80¢ in a liquid market, showing continued conviction even after previously closing positions here
$2,397 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election bettor
A proven sharp political trader with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad Peru election thesis across 13 related markets, and this trade adds fresh NO exposure in a liquid market at 78¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $244k lifetime
- They have traded 13 markets in this Peru election event for $42k total, showing a broad event-level thesis
- Bought No at 78¢, implying they see Carlos Álvarez as less likely than the market’s 23% Yes price suggests
$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
92% win-rate election bettor
A 92% win-rate serial cross-market bettor reopened a No position in a major Peru election market at 79¢ after previously trading the same side, making this a credible follow signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 1,166 markets and has traded 72 related events.
- They reopened a No position at 79¢ after previously closing one, showing renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp political view than a random punt in a thin book.
$2,069 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
87% winner, event-wide thesis
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh No exposure on Carlos Álvarez at 80¢ after already showing strong multi-market edge across this event.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 187 settled bets
- They have traded 13 markets tied to this Peru election event for $43k total, suggesting a broad event-level view rather than a one-off punt
- Bought No at 80¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see Álvarez as less likely than the current 21% Yes price suggests
$2,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate event trader
A proven sharp political trader with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh conviction on Carlos Álvarez losing at 83%.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243.6k across 187 settled markets
- They have traded 13 markets in this same Peru election event for $41.5k, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought No at 83¢, a high-confidence position that Carlos Álvarez does not win despite the market already moving 5.8 points lower today
$1,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10047250, $3,951,697
- 0xdc03...804c — Outcome 96778993, $215,297 (80% win rate)
- 0x784f...5df9 — Outcome 96778993, $137,712 (86% win rate)
- 0x24c8...23e1 — Outcome 96778993, $124,522 (40% win rate)
- 0x8575...87fe — Outcome 96778993, $69,692
- 0x5a21...9318 — Outcome 96778993, $50,347 (58% win rate)
- 0xcd91...32b8 — Outcome 96778993, $48,057
- 0x6f16...e1ea — Outcome 96778993, $30,000
- 0xf285...ab24 — Outcome 96778993, $25,639 (65% win rate)
- 0xc12a...f980 — Outcome 96778993, $20,000
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