Part of: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,086.

Categories: Iran, tanker, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Hormuz

Notable Trades

93% winner in 17-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 93% winner is buying No alongside a 17-wallet funded cluster on a data-driven shipping market with a large price breakout.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $107,847 lifetime.
  • 17 wallets sharing the same funder have positioned on this market, totaling $5,852.
  • They are buying No at 40¢ after a major price break, suggesting conviction that the ship count stays at 150 or higher.

$2,086 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x85a8...9281 Yes, $23,350 (94% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $18,613
  3. 0x2d4b...ca7a No, $12,506
  4. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $6,239 (93% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a No, $5,840 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xc4d5...87cf No, $3,599 (43% win rate)
  7. 0xb8a7...7674 Yes, $3,582 (69% win rate)
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $3,542
  9. 0xf0d5...c665 Yes, $3,078 (91% win rate)
  10. 0xf2aa...21fb Yes, $2,923 (44% win rate)

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World Cup favorites prevail

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US-Iran peace deal unlikely

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Ships keep transiting Hormuz

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No Iran deal announced

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Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?

ResolvedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?$2,086 tracked1 signalIrantankerStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsHormuz
Yes
99¢
No
1¢

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
82¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?

5d ago

$2,086 on No at 40¢

40¢1¢39¢

Related Theses