Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,572.

Categories: World, Brazil, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adding to No

A consistently profitable, highly active trader is adding to an existing No position while holding bets across three markets in the same election event.

  • The wallet has made $223,865 across more than 12,000 resolved bets, though its 66% win rate alone does not establish an edge at this entry price.
  • This is an additional $1,180 No bet, building on an existing $6,470 No position; the trader has $10,648 across three markets in the same event.

$1,180 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Proven sharp with 82% wins

A highly profitable bettor with 1,727 resolved positions is buying Yes, supported by a consistent cross-market track record.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,727 resolved positions and is up $871,388.
  • They placed a $1,375 Yes bet and have traded across 63 events.
  • The entry is 38¢, while the market currently prices Yes at about 38%.

$1,375 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven cross-market bettor sells YES

A proven bettor with 139 resolved positions and a reported 39-point edge sold Yes, creating a defensible No-side copy trade.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 139 resolved positions and is up $249,795.
  • They sold Yes at 43¢, equivalent to buying No at 57¢, and have traded across 70 events.

$5,818 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven bettor with 3,659 resolved positions

A highly profitable bettor with 3,659 resolved positions is buying No, backed by a reported 35-point edge over average odds.

  • This bettor has won about 95% of 3,659 resolved positions and is up $1.83M.
  • They are buying No at 66¢, with a reported 35-point edge over their average odds.
  • This wallet has traded across 714 events, showing an extensive cross-market track record.

$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $698,205
  2. 0x0e97...8ffa — Yes, $120,135 (48% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $78,726 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x2344...6458 — Yes, $48,101 (25% win rate)
  5. 0x44c5...8d45 — Yes, $36,841 (78% win rate)
  6. 0xddbb...32af — Yes, $27,235 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x4082...efd6 — Yes, $25,317 (0% win rate)
  8. 0x7c02...0f2d — Yes, $15,948
  9. 0xc7f8...f708 — Yes, $13,347
  10. 0x81ab...ba97 — Yes, $12,059

Related Theses

Someone else wins Peru presidency

Covers 3 related markets

Flávio beats Lula in 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next PM

Covers 3 related markets

Iran announcement timing markets are mispriced

Covers 5 related markets

Iran blockade ends by September

Covers 7 related markets

Brazil election won’t be close

Covers 4 related markets

Ballon d’Or goes elsewhere

Covers 3 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 9 related markets

Iran ceasefire holds into November

Covers 5 related markets

Mees Rottgering will win

Covers 1 related market

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory$10,572 tracked4 signalsWorldBrazilPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Notable Trades

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

2026-10-21 23:29 UTC

$1,180 on No at 59¢

59¢→100¢↑41¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

2026-10-21 02:57 UTC

$1,375 on Yes at 38¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

2026-10-15 09:57 UTC

$5,818 on No at 57¢

57¢→100¢↑43¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

2026-10-08 14:25 UTC

$2,200 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Related Theses

Someone else wins Peru presidency
Wallet_0xc7e53 trades 3 related markets
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino …Will Keiko Fujimori win the 20…Will Rafael López Aliaga win t…
Flávio beats Lula in 2026
Wallet_0x122cb trades 2 related markets
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…
Eizenkot becomes Israel’s next PM
Wallet_0x122cb trades 3 related markets
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next…Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the…Will Naftali Bennett be the ne…
Iran announcement timing markets are mispriced
Wallet_0xc7e53 trades 5 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran blockade ends by September
Wallet_0x524db trades 7 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Brazil election won’t be close
Wallet_0x122cb trades 4 related markets
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …
Ballon d’Or goes elsewhere
Wallet_0x122cb trades 3 related markets
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 B…Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026…Will Kylian Mbappé win the 202…
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Wallet_0x524db trades 9 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Iran ceasefire holds into November
Wallet_0x524db trades 5 related markets
US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Mees Rottgering will win
Wallet_0xe8c4d trades 1 related market
Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottg…