Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Keiko Fujimori will win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, including any potential second round after the April 12, 2026 general election. The market resolves based on credible reporting of the final election winner, with current smart money tracking showing $5,020 across 1 signal and recent sharp activity including clustered NO buying and some winner buying for Fujimori. If the result is not definitively known by October 31, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $335,052.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $901k lifetime P&L is buying Yes amid a broader $142k multi-market Peru election position.
- This bettor is up $901k lifetime across 928 resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 53 events and 115 markets.
- They have $142k positioned across 3 markets in this Peru election event.
$6,136 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a $69.9k cross-market thesis on Peru’s election as Fujimori odds trend higher.
- This bettor is up $227k lifetime across 992 resolved trades.
- They have placed nearly $70k across 4 related Peru election markets.
- They bought Yes at 72¢ after the market moved up 8.5 points in the last day.
$5,020 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
Profitable serial politics trader
A profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a politically meaningful market with strong recent upward momentum, though the bet is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has 1,269 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $70k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 456 markets and over $1M invested.
- They bought Yes at 74¢ after the market moved up 9 points in the past day.
$3,165 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking the No side against Keiko Fujimori despite her 64% market odds.
- This bettor is up $307k across 1,052 resolved trades, with a 67% win rate.
- They have traded 76 markets across 52 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 63¢ is equivalent to buying No at 37¢, implying they think the frontrunner is overpriced.
$1,934 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp cross-market election trader
A profitable 79% lifetime wallet is making a large anti-Keiko position as part of a broad Peru election cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $331,752 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 55 events and $2.3M traded.
- This is part of a broader Peru election thesis: 7 related markets and $291k in event exposure.
$19,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable Peru cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Peru election thesis by fading Keiko Fujimori at 64¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,018 resolved bets with $63.6K in lifetime profit.
- They are active across 3 related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 64¢ converts to buying No at 36¢, a low-cost fade of the current favorite.
$3,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp cross-market election bettor
Sharp 79% lifetime winner is making a fresh $34k Yes bet as part of a large cross-market Peru election thesis.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $331k lifetime.
- They have put $305k across 7 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $34k buy at 63¢ adds fresh conviction on Yes.
$34,070 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Serial cross-market winner
Seasoned cross-market trader with a long positive track record is fading the current favorite in a major election market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 599 resolved bets and is up about $27K lifetime.
- They have traded across 560 markets, suggesting a broad cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 62¢ is effectively a bet on No at 38¢, fading the current favorite.
$4,788 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Repeat wallet flips Yes
New-ish repeat-flagged wallet flipped from a prior No position and bought $11.4k of Yes while also positioning across four related Peru election markets during a volume spike.
- This repeat-flagged wallet bought $11.4k of Yes after previously closing a No position on the same market.
- The bettor has put $21.9k across four related election markets, suggesting a broader Peru election thesis.
- Market volume is running about 10x above its historical average, supporting that others may be repositioning too.
$11,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
Profitable serial election trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large long-term track record is fading Fujimori via a $3.1k Yes sale, equivalent to buying No at 38¢.
- This bettor wins 67% of resolved trades and is up $295k lifetime across more than 1,000 bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.18M deployed across 48 events and 68 markets.
- Selling Yes at 62¢ is equivalent to buying No at 38¢, despite Fujimori still being priced as the favorite.
$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,495,994
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $291,663 (79% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $167,011 (83% win rate)
- 0xc436...47a2 — Yes, $158,900
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $136,284 (50% win rate)
- 0x3e5b...073b — No, $100,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $76,297 (73% win rate)
- 0x7765...ccb8 — Yes, $71,013
- 0x69e7...d3b0 — Yes, $62,871 (53% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $57,310 (75% win rate)
