Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Nicolás Maduro will officially be the leader of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2026. The market resolves based on who formally holds the head-of-state position under official government information at that time, making it a closely watched contract for traders following Venezuela politics, regime stability, and geopolitical risk.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $14,137.

Categories: Trump-Machado, Venezuela, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, maduro

Notable Trades

Profitable serial political trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1M in profit put $14.1k into Yes on a politically relevant market during a sharp recent move, making it worth following despite only moderate edge.

  • This bettor has made 878 resolved trades, won 64% of them, and is up about $955k.
  • They trade across many related markets — 34 events and 47 markets — which suggests a repeatable macro thesis, not a random punt.
  • They bought Yes at 48¢ after this market jumped 27 points in a day, signaling conviction on a live political view.

$14,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $233,816
  2. 0x9d84...1344 Yes, $113,525 (38% win rate)
  3. 0xa3ff...540e No, $53,558 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $33,601 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x49b6...170c Yes, $28,955 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $19,628 (58% win rate)
  7. 0x524c...6b4f No, $19,525
  8. 0x71ed...d338 Yes, $17,796 (83% win rate)
  9. 0x7e31...454d Yes, $14,465 (71% win rate)
  10. 0xc021...1fa8 Yes, $11,741 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

258d$14,137 tracked1 signalTrump-MachadoVenezuelaTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsmaduro
Yes
50¢
No
50¢

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Price History — “Yes
46¢
31¢
15¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

1h ago

$14,137 on Yes at 48¢

48¢50¢2¢

Related Theses

Maduro Venezuela 2026 Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter