Part of: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
This Polymarket prediction market covers whether Nigel Farage will receive between 70% and 80% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The market resolves using the reported vote share, with an exact midpoint resolving to the higher bracket, and has a resolution date of June 30, 2027.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $77,089.
Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, United Kingdom, UK By-Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
New whale scaling into No
A one-hour-old wallet is adding to a roughly $6,000 No position in a thin, wide-spread political market, showing notable early conviction despite having no proven track record.
- A wallet created just over an hour ago has already invested roughly $6,000 in No.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position in a market with only $4,253 liquidity and a very wide spread.
- No has risen from the trader’s 55¢ entry to about 69¢, though the wallet has no resolved bets proving an edge.
$32,526 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Whale scaling into No
A large existing holder added nearly $38,000 to No amid an extreme volume spike and broader three-market positioning, signaling meaningful conviction despite no proven track record.
- This trader already had $80,367 in No and added another $37,904 at 65¢.
- The two trades represented 419% of detected 24-hour volume, alongside a 9,571× historical volume spike.
- The wallet is positioned across three related markets totaling about $60,000, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than an isolated wager.
$37,904 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Volume-spike bettor buying Yes
A highly unusual volume spike accompanies a $1,298 bearish-No trade, equivalent to buying Yes well below the trader's entry-implied valuation, though the wallet's record is only moderate.
- A 9,571x surge over the market's historical trading baseline suggests unusual positioning around this outcome.
- The trader sold No at 66¢, equivalent to backing Yes at an implied 34¢ versus current Yes odds near 43¢.
- This wallet has 1,811 resolved bets and is up $156,305, though its 58% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
$1,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
New whale scaling into No
A one-hour-old wallet is adding to a roughly $6,000 No position in a thin, wide-spread political market, showing notable early conviction despite having no proven track record.
- A wallet created just over an hour ago has already invested roughly $6,000 in No.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position in a market with only $4,253 liquidity and a very wide spread.
- No has risen from the trader’s 55¢ entry to about 69¢, though the wallet has no resolved bets proving an edge.
$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale scaling into No
A one-hour-old wallet is adding to a roughly $6,000 No position in a thin, wide-spread political market, showing notable early conviction despite having no proven track record.
- A wallet created just over an hour ago has already invested roughly $6,000 in No.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position in a market with only $4,253 liquidity and a very wide spread.
- No has risen from the trader’s 55¢ entry to about 69¢, though the wallet has no resolved bets proving an edge.
$1,305 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader made an oversized No bet in a thin market and the price has already moved strongly in their direction.
- This bettor is up $1.07M across 1,179 resolved markets.
- Their $2.8k No buy was over 8x the market’s recent daily volume.
- No has already moved from 66¢ to 81¢, showing the market followed their direction.
$2,755 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 88992509, $61,111 (70% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 69876441, $46,097
- 0x4c8c...e36f — Outcome 88992509, $9,000 (92% win rate)
- 0xb100...6461 — Outcome 88992509, $6,458 (61% win rate)
- 0x8c0b...f0fb — Outcome 88992509, $4,197 (74% win rate)
- 0xb760...ccd7 — Outcome 88992509, $3,846 (54% win rate)
- 0xa2ac...7f76 — Outcome 88992509, $3,650 (70% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — Outcome 88992509, $2,838 (71% win rate)
- 0x0414...be21 — Outcome 88992509, $2,523 (54% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 88992509, $2,000 (49% win rate)
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