What is the Nigel Farage Clacton prediction market?

It is a political prediction market on whether Nigel Farage will win at least 80% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

What vote share does Nigel Farage need to win this market?

Nigel Farage must receive at least 80% of the valid votes for the market to resolve Yes.

How are the Clacton by-election market odds determined?

The Yes and No prices are determined by trading activity on the exchange. PolySpotter tracks the latest market pricing, smart money signals, and notable wallet activity.

When will this Nigel Farage market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027, based on the official reported vote share and election results.

What happens if Nigel Farage does not contest the election?

According to the market rules, if the specified candidate does not compete or the election results are unavailable as specified, the market resolves according to the exchange's stated fallback rules.

Part of: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will receive at least 80% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. PolySpotter tracks the latest Yes/No market odds and smart money activity; the market is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027, once official results are available.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,707.

Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, United Kingdom, UK By-Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Six-wallet funded cluster backs No

Six linked wallets and a consistently active trader are backing No, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the modest position size.

Six wallets sharing a funder are associated with $1,720 in No exposure on this market.
The trader has 167 resolved bets, a 65% win rate, and is up $118,662 lifetime.
No was bought at 86¢, implying the trader viewed an unlikely 80%-plus Farage result as even less likely.

$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

New whale scaling into Yes

A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.

This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.

$25,434 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into Yes

A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.

This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.

$27,033 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a contrarian $4,354 position on No.

This bettor has won 83% of 197 resolved trades and earned about $1.19 million.
The wallet has traded across 61 events and 85 markets, indicating a repeatable research-driven approach rather than a one-off wager.
The $4,354 No position at 44¢ goes against the market's recent 40.5% Yes rally, making the contrarian timing notable.

$4,354 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Three-wallet bullish Clacton cluster

Three wallets committed nearly $7.9K to Yes, with the coordinated flow coinciding with a 45.5% one-day price surge despite mixed bettor quality.

Three wallets aligned on Yes exposure totaling $7,889, including a No sale equivalent to buying Yes around 58¢.
Yes rose 45.5% in one day and 48.0% over the week, corroborating the concentrated buying.
One participant is a profitable long-term bettor up $156K, though another is reducing an existing No position and has a losing record.

$7,889 on Yes

New whale scaling into Yes

A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.

This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.

$4,829 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into Yes

A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.

This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.

$2,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into Yes

A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.

This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.

$1,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0xe7b3...2b3a — Yes, $388,828 (100% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — No, $46,097
0x4ae7...561f — Yes, $13,295
0x500a...c8e4 — Yes, $8,220
0x8c0b...f0fb — Yes, $4,369 (78% win rate)
0x0414...be21 — Yes, $2,523 (54% win rate)
0xbc60...af79 — Yes, $2,182 (60% win rate)
0xe234...304a — Yes, $2,000 (67% win rate)
0xdb97...eee8 — Yes, $1,500 (75% win rate)
0x6404...f250 — Yes, $1,200 (70% win rate)

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %$74,707 tracked8 signalsUKClactonPoliticsElectionsUnited KingdomUK By-ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Yes

0¢

100¢

Yes

0¢

100¢