Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Paloma Valencia will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election on Polymarket. It covers both the May 31, 2026 first round and any required June 21, 2026 runoff, with the market resolving to her only if she is the official winner. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,440 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent profitable new wallet buying Yes.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,440.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A repeat new wallet with early profits is making another meaningful political bet, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite the modest trade size.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 4 times, with $9.5k in notable bets and $3.2k in profit so far
- It is adding fresh money to a 2026 Colombia election market by buying Yes at 43¢, above the current 41¢ market price
- The market is liquid enough that this looks like deliberate conviction, not just noise in a dead market
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $187,832
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — No, $35,671 (72% win rate)
- 0x784f...5df9 — Yes, $33,085 (87% win rate)
- 0x682d...31ab — Yes, $28,860 (80% win rate)
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — Yes, $23,986 (80% win rate)
- 0x6f40...eb64 — Yes, $10,198 (55% win rate)
- 0x1fb4...55d2 — Yes, $8,873
- 0xf1f9...1245 — Yes, $8,584 (56% win rate)
- 0x7615...0a9f — Yes, $7,896
- 0x214f...2915 — Yes, $6,381
