Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Paloma Valencia will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election, including a potential second round scheduled for June 21, 2026. The market resolves to the listed winning candidate once the official result is known, or to “Other” if no result is known by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $7,005 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes buying and No/fading activity.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,348.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is buying No on Paloma Valencia while also positioning across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor has won 82% of 202 resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
- They put $7.0k on No at 85¢, a meaningful bet equal to over half of the market’s 24h volume.
- The wallet is also active across another related Colombian election market, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$7,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner betting NO
A proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is taking a $3.3k No position and has placed $6.3k across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
- They bought $3.3k of No at 84¢, taking a clear position against Paloma Valencia.
- The same wallet has $6.3k across two related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$3,333 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% record is buying No on Paloma Valencia while also positioning across related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor has won 81% of 197 resolved bets and is up $42K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 related election markets, suggesting a broader Colombia 2026 thesis.
- Buying No at 84¢ implies a low-risk thesis that Valencia is unlikely to win.
$1,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
80% winner fading Paloma
A highly profitable wallet with an 80% win rate sold Paloma Valencia Yes at 31¢, which converts to a copyable BUY No at 69¢ on a liquid election market.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades and is up about $626k across 1,072 resolved markets.
- They exited Yes at 31¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 69¢ in this election market.
- The market is liquid and Paloma's odds have fallen about 10 points over the past week, matching the bearish view.
$1,457 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable new wallet adds NO
A repeat new wallet with early profits put another $2.1k behind Paloma Valencia NO at 68-70¢, adding notable conviction in a major political market.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 5 times, has 9 positions, and is up $3.2k so far.
- Both trades point the same way: selling Yes at 32¢ is the same as buying No at 68¢, then adding more No at 70¢.
- The bet is in a major 2026 Colombia election market, and they are leaning into the side already moving higher with Yes down 6.2 points in a day.
$2,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
Sharp bettor flipping to No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate sold Yes at 33¢, which translates to a copyable BUY No at 67¢ on a liquid political market.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,041 resolved markets and is up $614k lifetime
- They sold Yes at 33¢, which is the same as buying No at 67¢ against Paloma Valencia
- This is a real political market with decent liquidity, so the move looks more like informed pricing than a random punt
$1,008 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp bettor fades Yes
A proven sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $612k profit is fading Paloma Valencia by effectively buying No at 62¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,035 resolved markets and is up $612k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 38¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 62¢ in this binary market.
- Their average winning entry is 44¢, so this price still fits a disciplined value-betting style.
$1,137 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
A highly profitable 75%-win-rate serial cross-market trader sold Yes at 40¢, which translates to buying No at 60¢ on a major political market.
- This bettor wins 75% of 1,022 resolved trades and is up $3.28M lifetime.
- They trade across 82 events and 124 related markets, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge.
- This sale at 40¢ on Yes is equivalent to buying No at 60¢, showing a clear view against this candidate.
$2,082 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A repeat new wallet with early profits is making another meaningful political bet, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite the modest trade size.
- This new wallet has already been flagged 4 times, with $9.5k in notable bets and $3.2k in profit so far
- It is adding fresh money to a 2026 Colombia election market by buying Yes at 43¢, above the current 41¢ market price
- The market is liquid enough that this looks like deliberate conviction, not just noise in a dead market
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $815,203
- 0x784f...5df9 — Yes, $108,635 (86% win rate)
- 0x2117...5c26 — Yes, $59,100 (67% win rate)
- 0x585b...753f — Yes, $34,729
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $25,000 (74% win rate)
- 0xde04...fa37 — Yes, $24,971 (49% win rate)
- 0xf5e8...9fbd — Yes, $24,050
- 0x8438...02fe — Yes, $22,114
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — Yes, $20,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x414b...0d3f — Yes, $17,352 (64% win rate)
Related Theses
Sánchez or López Aliaga wins
Covers 5 related markets
Sánchez Palomino wins presidency
Covers 3 related markets
Espriella or Cepeda, not Valencia
Covers 3 related markets
